1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the ONTARIO TOWER building (without any additional suffixes) is formally assigned to the Burj Khalifa area, master project Business Bay.
2. Volume and structure of sales/rentals
For the sale of 2-bedroom apartments (2 b/r) in ONTARIO TOWER, 41 transactions have been recorded. This is a sufficient volume to analyse price dynamics for the building. Rental activity is high: 686 residential contracts have been recorded for the building over the entire period, while the filter for 2-bedroom units returned zero results (other apartment types are being rented). For the final estimate of average rent, the indicator for all residential apartments in ONTARIO TOWER was used.
3. Sales dynamics and prices for 2-bedroom apartments
Transaction frequency. From 2020 to 2024, transactions with 2-bedroom units in the building were recorded almost every quarter, with some pick-up in activity in 2022–2023.
Average price per m² dynamics:
– Over the last 3–4 years there has been a significant increase in price per m²: from 7,800–9,400 AED/m² in 2020–2022 to 14,600 AED/m² in certain quarters of 2024.
– The average price per m² for the building over the last 12 months is 13,041 AED/m².
– For comparison, the average level for the Burj Khalifa area for 2 b/r transactions over the same period is 27,195 AED/m², which is 2 times higher than in the building under review.
This indicates a noticeably more affordable purchase price in ONTARIO TOWER compared with the area as a whole.
4. Rental rates and their dynamics
There is no data for rentals of specifically 2-bedroom apartments in ONTARIO TOWER over the last 12 months. Therefore, for the assessment we use the average value for all residential apartments in the building.
– Average annual rental rate in ONTARIO TOWER over the last 12 months: 1,173 AED/m².
– Average rental level in the Burj Khalifa area: 1,588 AED/m² (over the last 12 months).
Rental dynamics:
– In ONTARIO TOWER, since 2020 the rental rate has increased from 600–800 AED/m² in 2020–2021 to 1,100–1,200 AED/m² in 2024.
– Across the area as a whole over the same period, rents have grown from around 800 AED/m² to 1,400–1,600 AED/m² in 2024.
5. Yield (ROI) assessment
– Gross yield (brutto) for the building, based on an average purchase price of 13,041 AED/m² and rent of 1,173 AED/m²: ROI_brutto ≈ 9.0% for ONTARIO TOWER.
– For the Burj Khalifa area, the comparable ratio is: ROI_brutto ≈ 5.8%.
Taking into account transaction costs (about 7–8% at entry), the effective (net) yield for ONTARIO TOWER decreases to 8.3–8.4% (i.e. ROI_brutto divided by roughly 1.07–1.08).
6. Analysis of the fair price range for a 7–8% annual yield target
– For ONTARIO TOWER, based on the average rent of 1,173 AED/m²:
– The fair investment price range for a 7–8% annual yield is: 1,173 / 0.08 = 14,663 AED/m² and 1,173 / 0.07 = 16,757 AED/m².
– The actual average transaction price (~13,041 AED/m²) is below this range, which provides a margin for the investor.
– For the Burj Khalifa area, this range would be even higher (19,850–22,680 AED/m²), which further highlights how much more affordable ONTARIO TOWER is compared with the Burj Khalifa market and that it may be one of the few projects delivering a real yield above 8% per annum.
7. Conclusions and outlook
Liquidity for the building is solid: 2 b/r transactions occur consistently, and the overall volume of rental contracts confirms stable tenant demand. Price dynamics (an increase of almost 1.5x over 3–4 years) demonstrate investment potential even despite the initially low starting point. Rents in the building are also steadily rising, although they remain significantly below the prime Burj Khalifa levels.
The comparison between the building and the area shows that ONTARIO TOWER remains one of the most affordable entry points into a location with Burj Khalifa status, while gross yields are noticeably above the market average (8–9% versus the typical 5–6% for the area). Over a 3–5 year horizon, continued demand for purchases can be expected, especially if rental rates in the area keep growing and do not exceed levels affordable for the average tenant.
The fair price range for a 7–8% annual yield does not contradict the current market — the premium is already there. For a seller, this signals that sales at 13,000–14,000 AED/m² will be attractive to investors, and for a buyer, that even at current levels it is realistic to achieve yields above the area average.
8. Key metrics in brief (building / area, last 12 months):
– Average price per m²: 13,041 / 27,195 AED
– Average rent per m²: 1,173 / 1,588 AED
– ROI_brutto: 9.0% / 5.8%
– ROI_net (minus 7–8% costs): ~8.4% / ~5.4%
– Fair price range (for the building, for 7–8% ROI): 14,663–16,757 AED/m²
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