ROI analysis of apartment in Azizi Riviera 37: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD data, the building Azizi Riviera 37 belongs to the Al Merkadh area and is located within the Meydan One Community master project.
Using the “2-bedroom apartments” filter in DLD_transactions, 17 deals were identified for this building, which allows for confident conclusions about the pricing level of the building itself. There are no registered rental contracts for Azizi Riviera 37 in DLD_rent_contracts (including within the Meydan One Community master project), however the Al Merkadh area has a very large sample (more than 27,000 contracts), which provides high reliability for the area-level rental benchmark.

2. Transactions and price dynamics for the building

There have been 17 recorded sales of 2-bedroom apartments in Azizi Riviera 37. Transaction activity by year and quarter is uneven: the main spikes were in Q2 2021, with renewed activity in mid and late 2023–2024.

The dynamics of the average price per square metre for 2-bedroom apartments in Azizi Riviera 37 are as follows:
– Autumn 2020: around 16,400 AED/m²
– Spring 2021: growth to 17,300 AED/m²
– 2023: average range of 15,900–18,200 AED/m²
– 2024 (last 12 months): average price per m² — 16,717 AED

Compared with similar 2-bedroom apartments in Al Merkadh:
– Over the last 12 months, the average price per m² in the area is higher at 20,344 AED, which is about 22% more expensive than in the subject building.
– Over recent years, the area’s price dynamics have mostly stayed within the 17,000–21,000 AED/m² corridor, with a sharp increase in the second half of 2022 and especially in 2023–2024.

Conclusion: Azizi Riviera 37 is trading on the market at a noticeable discount relative to the average area level for 2-bedroom apartments.

3. Rental and yield analysis

DLD has no registered rental contracts for Azizi Riviera 37 itself or for the entire Meydan One Community master project (under the 2-bedroom filter). Therefore, any calculations are only possible at the Al Merkadh area level. For the area there is a large contract base and stable dynamics — a reliable, representative dataset.

Average annual rental rate in Al Merkadh (all apartment types):
– Over the last 12 months: about 1,525 AED/m² per year, with a very significant increase over the past 3 years (for example, in 2021 the average rate was ~850 AED/m²).

If we use the current price and rental levels for the last 12 months to estimate current yield potential (ROI), we get:

– Actual average purchase price in Azizi Riviera 37 per m²: 16,717 AED (based on transactions over the last 12 months, 2-bedroom apartments).
– Actual average rental rate in the area per m²: 1,525 AED (last 12 months, all apartment types).

In this case, the calculated ROI_brutto for this asset is:
– ROI_brutto (for the building, using area-level rent): 1,525 / 16,717 ≈ 9.1% per annum.
– ROI_brutto for the area: 1,525 / 20,344 ≈ 7.5% per annum.

If we adjust for standard transactional and organisational costs (around 7–8% of the purchase price), the expected net yield (ROI_net) for an investor will be approximately:
– ROI_net ≈ 8.4–8.5% for Azizi Riviera 37 when purchased at current market prices.

4. Assessment of fair value range for an investor

For an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield:
– For the area: the fair “investment value” range is 1,525 / 0.08 = 19,062 AED/m² (for 8%) and 1,525 / 0.07 = 21,786 AED/m² (for 7%).
– The actual average purchase price in Azizi Riviera 37 (16,717 AED/m²) is below both this range and current transaction levels in the area.

This means that by purchasing an apartment in Azizi Riviera 37 now (at the level of the last 12 months), an investor can achieve a yield above the typical market benchmark. For comparison: to reach 7–8% per annum at current rental rates, the purchase price in the area should not exceed ~19–21.7 thousand AED/m², while this asset is trading significantly cheaper.

5. Liquidity and outlook

The sales volume indicates moderate liquidity for a new-build complex: the building is not ultra-liquid, but transactions occur regularly. The rental market in Al Merkadh (which includes the Riviera project) is one of the fastest-growing in Dubai in terms of demand, rental rates and transaction volume over the past 2 years. This is a positive indicator for an investor: rental demand is resilient, the potential for further rental growth remains, and the building’s discount to the area average allows for upside in the event of market stabilisation/growth.

Scenarios for an investor: over a 3–5 year horizon, the asset remains attractive due to its large discount to the area’s average price and relatively high expected yield. A further positive trend is likely both in capital values (purchase prices) and rental rates as the location becomes more “filled in”.

Risks: going forward, some “averaging out” is possible — the average price in the building may grow faster than the market as the discount narrows; however, if rental rates have reached a plateau, yields will gradually decline towards the 7–8% range.

6. Conclusion

Azizi Riviera 37 (2-bedroom apartments) currently offers an attractive scenario for an investor: acquisition with a yield above 8% per annum on invested capital (based on DLD data), which is higher than the area’s average market level. The asset’s liquidity and rental demand in the area are high, and the purchase price discount relative to the rest of Al Merkadh provides a margin of safety on entry. All calculations are based solely on DLD data; the assessment is accurate for current market conditions.