ROI analysis of apartment in Tabeer 1: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, Tabeer 1 belongs to the Al Warsan First area and is part of the International City Phase 1 master project. All subsequent conclusions at the area and master-project level are based strictly on these official administrative boundaries.

Data structure and volume: The database records 43 transactions with 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in Tabeer 1. For residential 1-bedroom apartment rentals in Tabeer 1 itself, there have been no new contracts over the past 12 months. Current rental rates are available only for the Al Warsan First area (averaged across the entire “Flat” apartment segment).

2. Sales dynamics and volumes

Over the past 3 years, transaction activity in Tabeer 1 has been quite high. Quarterly data show steady demand: in Q2 2024 there were 10 transactions for 1BR units; in 2022–2023 there were between 2 and 9 transactions per quarter, down to occasional single quarters. This indicates good liquidity, especially compared with large integrated district-scale projects.

The average price per square metre for 1BR apartments in Tabeer 1 has fluctuated over the past couple of years: in 2022–2023 the range was roughly 7,800–9,200 AED/m². In Q2 2024 the average level decreased to 7,353 AED/m². Overall, there is volatility, but without any sharp drop or extreme spike. For the last 12 months, an average value cannot be calculated (there are no transactions in this period with valid area or price), however in Al Warsan First the average price per m² over the last 12 months was 6,795 AED/m².

For reference, the price dynamics in Al Warsan First over the past 3 years show stable growth: in 2021–2022 prices were below 5,500 AED/m², then moved to 5,900–6,700 AED/m² in 2023–2024 and continue to increase gradually.

As we can see, Tabeer 1 has traditionally maintained a 15–25% premium to the district’s average market level, but in recent quarters this gap has narrowed to around 10%.

3. Rental market dynamics and structure

For 1-bedroom apartment (1BR) rentals in Tabeer 1, there have been no active contracts recorded over the past 12 months either at the building level or at the master-project level. This is typical for part of the International City stock, especially where units are new or frequently resold.

At the area level (Al Warsan First), the data volume for apartments is huge (over 130,000 valid contracts), which ensures high statistical reliability of the results.

The average long-term rental rate for apartments (Flat) in Al Warsan First over the last 12 months is 676 AED/m² per year. Over three years the trend is positive: in 2021 the average rate was 420–430 AED/m², by 2023 it had reached 500–570 AED/m², and in early 2024 it was 540–640 AED/m². This indicates strong growth in the rental segment.

4. Comparison of sales and rental levels, yield (ROI) assessment

Average values for the last 12 months (by area, since there is not enough recent sales or rental data for Tabeer 1 itself):

– Purchase price: ~6,795 AED/m² (Al Warsan First, all Flats, 12 months)
– Annual rental rate: ~676 AED/m² (Al Warsan First, all Flats, 12 months)
– Annual gross yield (ROI_brutto, by area): ~10.0%

Adjusted “net” yield (ROI_net) calculation, taking into account transaction costs (about 7–8% at entry):
– ROI_net ≈ 9.2–9.3%

Fair price range for a target investor yield of 7–8% per annum:
– 676/0.08 = 8,450 AED/m² (upper bound)
– 676/0.07 = 9,657 AED/m² (lower bound)

The current market level (6,795 AED/m²) in the area provides a yield noticeably above 8%, which is confirmed by the calculation. For an investor with a conservative yield threshold of 7–8%, entering at current prices is justified; no discount is required.

At the Tabeer 1 building level, it is impossible to calculate current ROI due to the lack of rental data; however, historically the sales price premium to the area has been 10–20%, and yields for such “premium” buildings are usually 1–2% lower than the area average (“for the brand and liquidity”).

5. Conclusions: liquidity and investment outlook

Tabeer 1 demonstrates good liquidity relative to the area — transactions for 1-bedroom apartments occur almost every quarter, with low volatility. Al Warsan First and the International City Phase 1 project form one of the largest and most stable rental markets in Dubai, with a broad tenant base.

Rental market growth over the past 3 years has been very strong, indicating high demand for affordable housing. The available sales and rental data point to strong income potential — ROI at the area level is around 9–10%. Under current market conditions, further price growth is constrained by historical yields, but sales are taking place without significant discounts, and rental yields remain competitive compared with other Dubai segments.

If the property is considered as a buy-to-let investment, the area and similar buildings offer high payback potential. The entry price at the area level is balanced relative to the “fair” level for a 7–8% yield.

6. Summary: all conclusions for Al Warsan First are applicable to Tabeer 1, but it is not possible to calculate building-level yields due to the lack of recent rental data. For investment planning, one should rely on the DLD area- and master-project-level statistics for the last 12 months.