ROI analysis of apartment in VILLA PERA: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: VILLA PERA is located in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) master development, according to DLD data.

There are 75 registered sale transactions for VILLA PERA, including 22 studio sales. The volume of rental contracts for studios stands at 75 over the entire observation period (only residential studios with adequate values for size and rental rate were taken into account).

2. Transaction volume and structure, market demand

Studio sale transactions have been recorded consistently since 2020. Over the last 4 years the volumes are as follows:
– 2020: 5 transactions (total for the building, studios — 3)
– 2021: 5 transactions (total), studios — 2
– 2022: 9 transactions (total), studios — 1
– 2023: 21 transactions (total), studios — 5 (by quarter)
– 2024: 22 transactions (as of today), studios — 7 (by quarter)
There is steady activity on the secondary market even for a relatively small building.

The rental segment for studios in the building is stable: over the last 12 months alone, 14 rental contracts have been signed. Thus, liquidity is confirmed both in sales and in leasing.

3. Dynamics of the average price per m² (VILLA PERA vs JVC)

For VILLA PERA (studios, average price per m², by quarter):
– 2020: range of 5,800–6,000 AED/m²
– 2021: 6,000 AED/m²
– 2022: jump to 8,300 AED/m² (single transaction), followed by a decline
– 2023: range of 7,400–7,800 AED/m²
– 2024: strong volatility: a drop to 4,700 AED/m² in Q2, then growth to 9,700 AED/m² in Q3

For comparison, across the entire Jumeirah Village Circle master project, studio price dynamics per m² are noticeably higher:
– 2023: 12,900–15,400 AED/m² (quarterly averages)
– 2024: 15,400–16,000+ AED/m²
– Last 12 months: 17,600+ AED/m²

Over the last 12 months in VILLA PERA:
– Average studio sale price: 7,990 AED/m² (4 transactions over the year)
– For comparison, across JVC: 17,630 AED/m² (volume — 5,745 transactions over the same period)
Thus, on a price-per-m² basis, VILLA PERA is significantly cheaper than the average JVC market level for studios (a gap of more than 2x).

4. Rental analysis and current yield

Dynamics of the average rent per m² in VILLA PERA:
– 2020–2022: mainly in the 550–800 AED/m²/year range, with individual spikes above 900 AED/m² in 2023–2025
– Since 2023 there has been a clear upward trend: current averages consistently exceed 850–900 AED/m²/year
– Over the last 12 months, the average rental rate for studios amounted to 904 AED/m²/year (14 contracts — a solid statistical base)

For comparison, across Jumeirah Village Circle (studios):
– Over the last 12 months, the average rental rate: 1,281 AED/m²/year (6,647 contracts)
– It is evident that studio rents in VILLA PERA are also below the market (by 30% or more). This may be due to the age of the building, the condition of the infrastructure, or the asset’s reputation.

5. Yield (ROI) calculation and fair investment price

Gross yield (ROI) based on 12‑month averages:
– For VILLA PERA: 904 / 7,990 ≈ 0.113 (11.3% per annum)
– For JVC (benchmark): 1,281 / 17,631 ≈ 0.073 (7.3% per annum)

Net yield (including entry costs — around 8%):
– VILLA PERA: 11.3% / 1.08 ≈ 10.5% per annum
– JVC: 7.3% / 1.08 ≈ 6.8% per annum

Fair price range at a target yield of 7–8% per annum based on building data:
– At 7%: 904 / 0.07 ≈ 12,914 AED/m²
– At 8%: 904 / 0.08 ≈ 11,300 AED/m²

Given the actual average sale price (7,990 AED/m²), VILLA PERA is currently significantly below the fair investment valuation for a 7–8% yield. This means that studio owners can afford a substantial discount to the current rental income, while investors obtain an asset with a highly above‑market income model relative to the wider market.

6. Comparison with the district, prospects and constraints

– Studios in VILLA PERA are significantly below the JVC market both in purchase price and rental level, but the price gap is larger than the rental gap.
– Transaction volume and the number of tenants indicate a liquid market (for the studio product).
– Price volatility in the building is elevated (individual deals may have a strong impact), so caution is required when valuing a specific unit.
– Investor prospects — above‑average market ROI, with potential for rental growth up to JVC levels, but sale price growth is unlikely to be rapid due to the strong lag behind the district benchmark.

7. Conclusions

VILLA PERA is an example of a high‑yield, but premium‑discounted residential asset in JVC. The average studio purchase price over the year is less than 45% of the JVC market level, while yields exceed the market by 3–4 percentage points. This makes the building highly attractive for investors focused on rental income, provided there are no significant issues with quality or management.