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1. Definition of the district and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the AJMAL SARAH building is located in Wadi Al Safa 5 and is part of the Dubai Land Residence Complex master project. The analytical dataset is calculated for AJMAL SARAH based on one-bedroom apartments, and for Wadi Al Safa 5 as a whole for comparative purposes. Over the entire observation period, 31 sales in AJMAL SARAH have been recorded in the DLD database.
2. Sales dynamics and structure
An analysis of transaction history shows sales in AJMAL SARAH only in three years: in 2020 (9 transactions), a small spike in activity in 2021 (1 transaction), and renewed interest starting from 2024 (5 transactions). In 2022–2023 there were no recorded transactions for one-bedroom units in this building.
Average price per sq.m dynamics (for 1BR in AJMAL SARAH):
– In 2020, average values ranged from 9,385 to 12,000 AED/sq.m.
– In 2021, there was a decline to 5,346–5,347 AED/sq.m.
– At the beginning of 2024, a local peak was recorded (12,982 AED/sq.m in Q1), followed by a decrease to 7,092–7,577 AED/sq.m in Q2–Q4 2024.
– Overall spread across all deals: from a minimum of 5,347 to a maximum of 13,228 AED/sq.m, with unit sizes from 76.5 to 108.2 sq.m.
For comparison, in Wadi Al Safa 5 as a whole, the average price per sq.m for apartments in recent periods has been higher than in the subject building. Over the last four quarters, the district has shown the following trend:
– Q1 2024: 6,870 AED/sq.m,
– Q2 2024: 10,499 AED/sq.m,
– Q3 2024: 12,111 AED/sq.m,
– Q4 2024: 11,782 AED/sq.m.
The average price per sq.m over the last 12 months in Wadi Al Safa 5 is approximately 14,047 AED/sq.m (there are no prices for the building itself for this period due to the absence of transactions).
3. Rental market and yields
For AJMAL SARAH, there are no recorded 1BR rental contracts with valid metrics in the DLD database over the last 12 months; the data is insufficient even for an assessment at the master-project level. Therefore, it is not possible to objectively determine the average rental level for this specific building.
In Wadi Al Safa 5 as a whole, the average annual rental rate per sq.m has been growing rapidly and over the last 12 months reached around ~720 AED/sq.m in Q4 2024 (for all apartment types — 1BR transactions are also few, so an aggregate across the entire residential stock of the district is used). Over the past four years, the average rent in the district has almost doubled — from 420–500 AED/sq.m in 2020–2021 to the current 650–750 AED/sq.m in 2024.
The volume of rental contracts in the district is very high: more than 10,000 active deals per year, indicating a liquid and consistently in-demand rental market.
4. ROI and fair pricing
Calculating ROI at the building level is not possible — there is no statistically valid data on rental rates for this particular property.
For Wadi Al Safa 5, with an average sale price of 14,047 AED/sq.m and an average rent of ~720 AED/sq.m over the last 12 months, the gross ROI for apartments is around 5.1% per annum (720/14,047).
Taking into account typical transaction costs (~7–8%), the net yield will be about 7% lower, i.e. around 4.7–4.8% per annum.
A fair “investment” price per sq.m to target a 7–8% yield in the district should be in the range of 9,000–10,300 AED/sq.m (720/0.08 and 720/0.07 respectively). Thus, current market prices are 30–40% above the threshold required to achieve a 7–8% annual yield, and the market is skewed more towards end-user occupancy and/or long-term speculative capital appreciation rather than pure “rental yield” plays.
5. Conclusions on the property
In recent years, AJMAL SARAH has been characterized by low liquidity in the 1BR sales segment: transactions occurred only in 2020, 2021 and 2024, with no demand in the interim period. Price dynamics in the building are below the district average, and overall liquidity is weaker than in New Dubai districts and Downtown.
Wadi Al Safa 5 is a rapidly developing segment with a low price base, a high number of tenants and a sharp increase in rental rates in 2023–2024. For a yield-focused investor, the market is already expensive: entering at current prices delivers a moderate ROI below the target 7–8%, even at the district level, while for AJMAL SARAH there is no rental evidence to support such figures at all. There may be potential for speculative capital growth, but based on DLD data it is difficult to justify the current yield level at the scale of individual buildings without new transactions and valid rental histories.
6. Position of AJMAL SARAH within the district
Average district prices and rents are steadily rising, the number of transactions and contracts in the area is high, and liquidity is stable. AJMAL SARAH itself, in the 1BR segment, trades below the district average, which may be attractive for end-user buyers, but investors should also consider other more liquid assets in the district with a solid rental track record.
An important caveat: it is not possible to calculate reliable ROI and “fair price” levels for the building without new sales and rental contracts.
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