1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to the DLD database, VICTORIA RESIDENCY is located in Jabal Ali First, within the Al Furjan master development. For the analysis, we used filters only for sales and leases with an exact building name match (project_name_en = ‘VICTORIA RESIDENCY’) and by area (area_name_en = ‘Jabal Ali First’). Unit mix: a separate analysis is provided for 1-bedroom apartments.
Data volume: for VICTORIA RESIDENCY there are 206 recorded sales and 330 lease contracts. For Jabal Ali First the dataset is large, with tens of thousands of transactions and contracts.
2. Liquidity
Over the past 12 months, 16 transactions for 1-bedroom apartments were concluded in VICTORIA RESIDENCY. This is a stable level of liquidity for a single building. For rentals over the same period, 26 contracts were registered in the building (for all residential units, the majority being 1BR and 2BR).
In Jabal Ali First, demand is an order of magnitude higher: 300–700 1BR sales per quarter and thousands of lease contracts. This indicates high liquidity and a broad base of both tenants and buyers.
3. Apartment price dynamics (sales)
For 1BR units in VICTORIA RESIDENCY, the average transaction price per m² over the last 12 months is 12,685 AED/m². The price range over the last 12 months is from 8,760 to 22,392 AED/m² (there are some outliers in registered sales).
Quarterly dynamics (building, 1BR):
– 2023 Q4: 9,359
– 2024 Q1: 9,484
– 2024 Q2: 10,125
– 2024 Q3: 10,295
– 2024 Q4: 10,258
– 2025 Q1: 16,317
– 2025 Q2: 11,621
– 2025 Q4: 10,749
We see moderate price growth in 2024, a spike at the beginning of 2025, followed by volatility. The average level is below the area benchmark.
Area benchmark (Jabal Ali First, 1BR):
– The average price per m² in the area over the last 12 months (by recent quarters) ranges between 12,000–13,500 AED/m², with peaks up to 23,500 AED/m². However, average levels are consistently higher than in VICTORIA RESIDENCY.
Overall, 1-bedroom apartments in the subject building trade with a small discount to the area average.
4. Rental rate dynamics
For VICTORIA RESIDENCY, the average annual rent per m² over the last 12 months is 828 AED/m² (from 472 to 1,096 AED/m²), based on 26 contracts (the main pool is 1BR units).
Quarterly dynamics (entire building, 2023–2025):
– 2023 Q4: 689
– 2024 Q1: 667
– 2024 Q2: 727
– 2024 Q3: 644
– 2024 Q4: 736
– 2025 Q1: 898
– 2025 Q2: 750
– 2025 Q3: 721
– 2025 Q4: 863
Rents have been growing throughout 2024–2025, with a notable increase by the end of 2024 and in 2025. At current levels, the building is slightly behind the wider area.
Jabal Ali First (all residential apartments):
– The average rent per m² in the area during the year is 780–815 AED/m², with quarterly peaks up to 970 AED/m².
In terms of rental rates, VICTORIA RESIDENCY is slightly above the most mass-market stock, but remains within the overall Al Furjan range.
5. Comparison of current price and rent levels (last 12 months)
– Average price per m² in the building (sales, 1BR): 12,685 AED/m²
– Comparable price in Jabal Ali First by recent quarters: 12,240–13,500 AED/m²
– Average rent per m² in the building: 828 AED/m²
– Comparable rent in the area: 780–815 AED/m²
The building is broadly in line with the area in terms of sale prices, and shows slightly higher rental levels (naturally, there may be dispersion by unit type and year of handover).
6. Economics and yield (ROI)
Calculation for VICTORIA RESIDENCY (building level, all 1BR, last 12 months):
– Gross ROI (excluding expenses): 828 / 12,685 ≈ 6.5% per annum for a typical unit based on DLD contracts.
– Net yield after transaction costs (around 7% of entry price): 6.5% / 1.07 ≈ 6.1% per annum.
Area benchmark:
– ROI in the area over the last 12 months: 780 / 12,500 ≈ 6.2% per annum, after costs — 5.8%.
Thus, the yield in the building is slightly above the area average due to either marginally higher rents or a slightly lower entry price.
Fair investment price range to achieve a 7–8% annual yield based on actual rents (building): 10,350–11,825 AED/m².
The current average market price exceeds this fair range by 7–22%. To reach a 7–8% yield, an investor will need either a discount to market or a higher rental rate.
7. Outlook and conclusions for investors
– VICTORIA RESIDENCY is a liquid building in a mature area with strong demand and a stable tenant base.
– Price dynamics show some growth over 2023–2025, but market volatility is significant and the price range is very wide.
– The building slightly lags the upper price levels of the area, while rents are in line with the mid-range for Al Furjan.
– Investment yield (6.1% net) is typical for ready, mass-market buildings without premium characteristics. To reach 7–8%, an investor needs to enter with a discount.
– The outlook for buyers is moderate capital appreciation and a standard income profile for Al Furjan. The main competition comes from new supply in the area. For 1BR units, a tenant can almost always be found quickly.
– If purchased at full market price, ROI will be slightly below the target level of top-tier investors.
Recommended strategy: focus on deals closer to the lower end of the range (8,800–11,000 AED/m²). At a rental rate of 820–840 AED/m², this would deliver around 7% annual net yield, which matches mainstream investment expectations.
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