ROI analysis of apartment in THE PAD: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the district and data structure

Actual location: According to open DLD data, the building THE PAD is located in Business Bay, master project Business Bay. Queries to the DLD database confirm that the asset is strictly within this district, and this categorisation is used when comparing it with benchmarks.

Data structure: For THE PAD, 392 sale transactions are recorded in the DLD database, indicating a fairly high level of liquidity. Over the past 12 months, there have been 54 sales and 89 new rental contracts in the building, and more than 14,000 sales and 15,900 rental transactions across the entire Business Bay district.

2. Price and liquidity dynamics in the building and the district

Sales dynamics for THE PAD:
The analysis shows active quarterly sales and steady demand. The quarterly dynamics of the average price per square metre over recent years are as follows (averaged values, only current periods):

– 2024: average prices per m² increased from 20,445 to 25,590 AED per m².
– 2023: average values ranged from 15,977 to 22,036 AED per m².
– 2022: there was a stable recovery from 13,093 to 17,104 AED per m².

Over the past 12 months, the average sale price in the building was 21,785 AED/m² (54 transactions), reflecting a confident increase since 2022.

For comparison, in Business Bay the average sale price per m² over the past 12 months is significantly higher — 26,940 AED/m² (14,260 transactions). This means that apartments in THE PAD are selling at roughly a 19% discount to the district average over the same period.

The quarterly dynamics for Business Bay also show steady growth: from ~19,024 AED/m² at the beginning of 2022 to 24–28 thousand AED/m² by 2024–2025.

3. Rental dynamics and market rates in THE PAD and the district

For THE PAD, 524 active residential rental contracts are recorded, which indicates a high level of engagement of this particular building in the rental market. There have been no direct contracts for studios alone over the past 12 months, so all residential units in the building were used for calculations.

The average annual rental rate over the last year was 1,626.5 AED/m² (89 contracts) in THE PAD, which is higher than the district average for the same period: in Business Bay — 1,330.3 AED/m² (15,950 contracts).

Rental dynamics show:
– In 2024–2025, average rates in the building are in the range of 1,545–1,832 AED/m² in different quarters, having increased by about 1.5 times compared to the end of 2021 (up to 1,069 AED/m²).
– Across the district, average rates have been growing more smoothly: from 700–800 AED/m² in 2020–2021 to 1,300–1,440 AED/m² in 2024–2025.

Thus, THE PAD rents at a significantly higher level than the Business Bay market average, with a difference of around 22% in favour of this building.

4. Current market levels, yields and calculation of investment fair value

Average purchase price (last 12 months):
– THE PAD: 21,785 AED/m²
– Business Bay: 26,940 AED/m²

Average rental rate (last 12 months):
– THE PAD: 1,626.5 AED/m²
– Business Bay: 1,330.3 AED/m²

Gross yield (ROI):
– For THE PAD (entire building): 1,626.5 / 21,785 = 7.47%
– For Business Bay: 1,330.3 / 26,940 = 4.94%

Adjustment to net yield, taking into account initial costs (around 7%):

– THE PAD: around 6.98% net per annum
– Business Bay: approximately 4.62% net per annum

Note that these are averaged figures, not a guarantee and not a formal valuation, but a benchmark based on the DLD market.

Investment fair price range for a 7–8% yield:

– THE PAD: fair price range for an investor = 20,330–23,236 AED/m²
– The current average price in THE PAD (21,785 AED/m²) corresponds to a yield slightly above 7%, i.e. it is balanced from an investment perspective.
– For Business Bay: for a 7% yield an investor should target the lower range of 16,600–19,000 AED/m², which is significantly below current market levels (i.e. transactions at market prices in the district deliver a “clean” yield below a typical investor’s target range).

5. Final assessment of liquidity and risk

THE PAD demonstrates high liquidity in both sales and rentals, a strong upward trend in rental rates, and a fairly rapid increase in sale prices since 2021. The building clearly “outperforms” the rest of Business Bay in terms of rental rates and yields. For an investor, a benchmark of 7.5% gross yield (and 7%+ net) is highly competitive for a new or relatively recent building in a prime business district. The extensive history of sales and rental transactions indicates liquidity both for purchase and for resale.

Risks are moderate: sale prices have already grown substantially over the past three years, which may limit further capital appreciation, but the above-market rental yield potential remains.

Final conclusion: THE PAD in Business Bay, as of now, offers a very attractive combination of price, rental rate and liquidity, outperforming almost the entire district market in terms of yield and affordability. For strategic investments in the segment of liquid rental apartments, the building is significantly preferable to the average market level in Business Bay.