1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, the building Sobha Hartland Waves is located in the Al Merkadh area and the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. The analysis focuses on a two-bedroom (2 b/r) apartment in this building. The building name provides sufficient data; there is no need to broaden the filter to the entire project.
Data volume and structure: for 2 b/r apartment sales in the building, 268 transactions have been recorded — this is a stable and representative base for analysing price dynamics and comparing with the wider area. For rentals (both in this building and in the master project), DLD shows no contracts of the “2 bed rooms” type with valid area and rate — there are no valid rental records directly in Waves or in the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. Therefore, the rental analysis is carried out only at the level of the Al Merkadh area as a whole, where the data set is very large (27,000+ contracts over the entire period).
2. Dynamics and distribution of sale prices
– Transactions with 2 b/r apartments in Sobha Hartland Waves have been active since 2021. The most active periods were 2022–2024.
– The average price per square metre (purchase price) has consistently remained in the range of 19,000–22,000 AED/m², with some quarters reaching 23,000+ AED/m².
Building-level dynamics (2 b/r apartments):
– In 2022: quarterly averages were 20,600–21,700 AED/m².
– In 2023: a wider spread, from 19,400 to 23,700 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price in the building was 19,488 AED/m².
Area-level dynamics (Al Merkadh 2 b/r):
– In 2022: on average 17,100–19,300 AED/m².
– In 2023 and 2024: 18,100–21,000 AED/m².
– The area average over the last 12 months is 20,345 AED/m², i.e. relatively close to the building’s level.
Conclusion: 2-bedroom units in Waves are selling roughly at the average price level of the area or slightly below it over the last 12 months. This indicates pricing that is close to market, or slightly more affordable, relative to the local market.
3. Rental market analysis
In Sobha Hartland Waves and in the SOBHA HARTLAND master project, DLD currently does not show any active rental contracts for two-bedroom apartments with valid area and rate. Analysis is only possible for the entire Al Merkadh area:
– The average annual rental rate in the area (Al Merkadh, residential, all sizes – valid cases in the database) over the last 12 months is 1,525 AED/m²/year.
– The dynamics showed strong growth in 2022–2024: from 850–1,100 in 2022 to 1,375–1,550 in 2024.
– Over the last 3 years the trend has been clearly upward, and only in 2024 has the growth started to slow.
Limitations: all rental calculations apply exclusively to the entire residential stock of Al Merkadh, not to a specific building or even the master project. Therefore, any interpretation of ROI or fair price is based on the area level.
4. Calculation of returns (ROI) and fair price
ROI for an investor can only be calculated at the Al Merkadh area level, since it is impossible to obtain a specific rent_psm for Waves (or specifically for 2 b/r units) due to the absence of contracts.
– Estimated gross yield for the area based on purchasing an apartment (using the area rent_psm of 1,525 and the area price_psm of 20,345 over the last 12 months):
ROI_brutto_Al_Merkadh = 1,525 / 20,345 ≈ 7.5% per annum.
Adjustment for entry costs:
– We assume initial costs of 7–8% of the purchase price. ROI_net = ROI_brutto / 1.07–1.08 ≈ 6.9–7.0%.
Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% gross yield:
– With the area rent_psm of 1,525, the fair price per m² for such a yield is: 1,525 / 0.08 = 19,063 (upper bound); 1,525 / 0.07 = 21,785 (lower bound).
– The market is currently within this range: the actual average sale price over the last year in Waves is 19,488 AED/m² (below the area average) and fits into this “investment range”.
5. Liquidity and outlook
Transaction volume in Waves is stable; the building has fairly high liquidity for an emerging area. On the rental side, demand is also confirmed by the large number of transactions across the area and the continued growth in rates in 2022–2024.
Comparison with the area:
– The building is slightly more affordable than the area average, which can work in its favour in the rental market.
– At current prices and rental rates, yields are at or above the Dubai market average.
Conclusion for an investor:
Sobha Hartland Waves, 2-bedroom apartments: based on DLD-confirmed prices, the asset falls within the “investment range” of 7–8% annual yield (at the Al Merkadh area level), with moderately high liquidity and solid market demand for this segment. The building is able to compete on purchase price with average offerings in the area. The main drawback is the absence of confirmed rental contracts for the specific building, so any yield estimates can only be made at the area level. The outlook for the next 2–3 years appears balanced, given the sustained rental demand and stable buyer demand.
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