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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to the Dubai Land Department (DLD), the Sobha Creek Vistas Heights project is located in the Al Merkadh area and is part of the large master project SOBHA HARTLAND. In the DLD, transactions are recorded for two towers: Sobha Creek Vista Heights – Tower A and Tower B. All further analytics are strictly based on the DLD sample for 2-bedroom apartments (2BR) in this project.
2. Transaction volume and dynamics for the building
Over the past few years, 499 transactions have been concluded for 2-bedroom apartments in Sobha Creek Vistas Heights. This indicates very high liquidity of the building on both the primary and secondary markets — the average quarterly transaction volume ranged from 12 to almost 200 deals within a single quarter (during active launch and handover phases).
The average price per square meter for 2BR units over the last 12 months amounted to AED 21,332. The 5-quarter average price dynamics show a stable range between AED 21,350 and 22,000 per sq m; minor fluctuations are explained by the project’s sales stage and the mix of released units and layout options.
3. Dynamics comparison: master project and area
The SOBHA HARTLAND master project (at the 2BR level) has shown an average price of AED 19,976 per sq m over the last 12 months, which is about 6–7% lower than the current price in Sobha Creek Vistas Heights itself. At the same time, the quarterly dynamics for both the master project and the wider area are similar: rapid price acceleration in 2022–2023, followed by an almost flat plateau at AED 19,500–20,500 per sq m in 2024–2025.
Overall, Al Merkadh (the area) for 2BR apartments has an average price over the last 12 months of AED 20,201 per sq m, also lower than in the building under review.
Thus, Sobha Creek Vistas Heights for 2-bedroom apartments consistently trades at a 5–7% premium to the average level of both the area and the master project. This is driven by the quality of the asset, its recent completion, the developer’s brand, and strong investor demand.
4. Rental data: liquidity and ROI
Analysis of rental contracts in the DLD shows that there are no valid rental contracts in the database either for the building itself (Sobha Creek Vistas Heights) or for the SOBHA HARTLAND master project in the 2-bedroom segment for the period under review (no data meeting the filters for unit size and annual rent). For the Al Merkadh area there are also no aggregated rental rates that could be used for a reliable assessment of yields or a fair value range.
This may be due to the fact that the complex was handed over relatively recently and most apartments are still owned by investors who are either only starting to lease them out, or the rental data has not yet been registered in the DLD system (for example, due to long-term off-market agreements or tenants who have not yet registered Ejari in the DLD system).
Accordingly, it is not possible to calculate an average rental rate per sq m over the last 12 months at the level of the building, the master project, or the area. Therefore, it is not possible to correctly calculate ROI for an investor based on actual DLD data. It is also impossible to justify an “investment fair price range” targeting a 7–8% annual ROI — the income component is not confirmed.
5. Liquidity and outlook
Sobha Creek Vistas Heights is one of the most liquid new projects in Al Merkadh, as evidenced by the transaction volume and its stable price premium per square meter versus both the area and the master project. The building is in strong demand among investors; however, due to the absence of confirmed rental contracts in the state registry, it is impossible to assess the actual current rental yield. To accurately forecast returns or calculate an investment discount, updated data on rental rates is required (the analysis will become possible as more contracts are recorded in the DLD system).
For an investor, the potential upside lies in the level of liquidity and the stable premium to the area and surroundings, especially over a 3–5 year horizon. However, when making an investment decision, it is important to factor in the high share of investor-owners and the potential increase in competition in the rental market as the complex is fully handed over and supply grows.
Conclusion: Specific rental rates and ROI at this stage cannot be reasonably estimated based solely on DLD data. Any forecast-based yield calculations will be inaccurate without reliance on real, confirmed data. The building remains one of the most liquid and most expensive assets in the area in the 2-bedroom segment.
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