ROI analysis of apartment in Skyz by Danube: DLD data and real deals — 14.12.2025 — 14.12.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to the DLD database, the building SKYZ BY DANUBE (2-bedroom apartments) belongs to the Al Barshaa South Third area, master project Arjan.

The DLD database records 988 sales transactions for this building, which indicates high activity and liquidity of the project at the implementation stage, as well as strong mass-market interest in the asset as an investment product.

As of the analysis date, there is no rental data at the building level in the DLD (the project may have been handed over recently, or most contracts have not yet been registered). To assess the rental market, we used data for the Arjan master project and the Al Barshaa South Third area.

2. Demand dynamics and structure

Transactions for the building are distributed by year as follows:
– 2022: main sales peak (772 deals), the phase of active project launch.
– 2023: slowdown in the pace (60 deals).
– 2024–2025: transactions continue (apparently, handover of keys and late registrations), but volumes are already an order of magnitude lower (87 in 2024, 69 in 2025).

This is a standard pattern for mid-market projects: a sharp start, followed by a gradual decline in turnover as the building fills up.

3. Purchase price dynamics

The average price per m² for 2-bedroom apartments in SKYZ BY DANUBE shows the following quarterly values (last 3 years):

– 2022: steady growth from 9,520 to 10,630 AED/m².
– 2023: holding in the 10,300–11,700 AED/m² range.
– 2024: spread from 10,000 to 15,000 AED/m² (spikes are linked to rare late registrations; price outliers are possible for individual units).
– Peak average price in Q3 2024: 15,018 AED/m², followed by a correction to 12,260 in Q4.

Average over the last 12 months for the building: 12,376 AED/m².

Benchmark for the area (Al Barshaa South Third, 2-bedroom): 12,575 AED/m² for the same period.
Prices in the area as a whole are in line with the building level, with no clear premium or discount (difference under 2%).

4. Rental price dynamics

As of the analysis date, there are no registered rental contracts for the building itself. At the Arjan master-project level, the average annual rental rate over the last 12 months is 953 AED/m² per year, and for the area it is 919 AED/m² per year.

Dynamics for the area and the master project over 3–5 years:
– 2020: in the 550–700 AED/m² range.
– 2022: 600–680 AED/m².
– 2023: steady upward trend, reaching 740–770 AED/m² by year-end.
– Last quarters of 2024: consolidation at 830–870 AED/m², with a current trend of gradual growth.

5. Comparison: asset vs. area

– Purchase prices in the building are at a typical level for the location; there is no premium to the area.
– Price dynamics for the area and for the building are generally synchronized, with no significant differences in volatility or pricing trends.

6. ROI assessment and calculation of the investment fair-value range

– Gross ROI for the building itself cannot be calculated, as there are currently no registered rental contracts for SKYZ BY DANUBE in the DLD.
– For an investor, it makes sense to focus on ROI for Al Barshaa South Third and the Arjan master project, based on the last 12 months:
– For the area: 919 / 12,575 = 7.3% per annum (gross).
– For Arjan: 953 / 12,575 = 7.6% per annum (gross).

– After accounting for initial costs (one-off expenses of 7–8%), the actual net yield will be around 6.8–7.1% per annum.
– Fair “investment” price range for a buyer targeting a 7–8% annual yield:
– For the area: 919 / 0.08 = 11,488 AED/m² (lower bound for 8%), 919 / 0.07 = 13,129 AED/m² (upper bound for 7%).
– The current price level for both the area and the building is close to this corridor — further growth in purchase prices without an outpacing increase in rents will compress yields toward the lower edge of the fair range.

7. Conclusions for the investor

– Liquidity in the building is high; the bulk of transactions occurred at the launch stage.
– Price dynamics are stable, with no significant drawdowns.
– The building offers a typical payback level for Arjan and Al Barshaa South Third, with neither a premium nor a discount to the area.
– Yield potential for a buyer entering now is around 7.3–7.6% gross, which is the market standard for new projects in Arjan.
– There is no sign of overheating or clearly inflated pricing versus the area, which creates a “safety margin” for investment.
– The main risk is a possible delay in the emergence of actual rental cash flows in the building (no data yet on registered rental contracts in the DLD); it is worth monitoring the publication of new rental deals in the asset.
– 3–5 year outlook: moderate price growth is possible, but the main return is likely to come from rental income rather than capital appreciation.