ROI analysis of apartment in Rigel: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Rigel is confirmed by the DLD system as located in Al Barsha South Fourth, master project Jumeirah Village Circle.
The sample is built on transactions only for 1-bedroom (1BR) apartments, filtered strictly by building_name_en = ‘Rigel’. All comparisons with the wider area are made for the “1 b/r” type.

2. Transaction volume and liquidity

Since 2020, 263 sale transactions have been recorded for 1BR apartments in Rigel. This format is in demand, as evidenced by a stable flow of transactions in almost every quarter since 2020. Over the last 12 months, there have been 26 1BR transactions in the building, which is a good level of liquidity for a new property.

3. Price dynamics of the building and the area

Price per m² dynamics for Rigel (1BR) since 2020:
– Initial levels in 2020: 8,300–8,700 AED/m², with a decline during 2021 to 7,300–7,600 AED/m².
– From late 2022 and throughout 2023 there is a steady increase: 8,700–9,300 AED/m².
– In 2024, average values fluctuate between 8,900–10,300 AED/m², with further growth in Q4 (to 10,300+ AED/m²).

Local benchmark for the area (Al Barsha South Fourth, 1BR only):
– In 2022–2023 the area’s average level significantly exceeds prices in Rigel and is rising: from ~8,700 (early 2022) to 12,300 AED/m² (end of 2023, 1BR), and in 2024 it increases further to 12,700–14,200 AED/m².

The average price per m² in Rigel over the last 12 months is 10,590 AED/m² (1BR, 26 transactions).
Across the area as a whole for 1BR — 14,290 AED/m² (more than 11,000 transactions over 12 months, extremely high liquidity).

Conclusion: The building trades consistently with stable price growth, but at a level significantly below the average market price for 1BR units in Al Barsha South Fourth.

4. Rental structure and dynamics

The DLD database has no rental data for Rigel or the Jumeirah Village Circle master project for 1BR units, nor even for the entire master community — most likely the building has been handed over recently or rental listings are only now entering an active phase.
To assess yields, we have to move up to the level of the entire Al Barsha South Fourth area (all apartment types). Here the sample is huge — 28,198 rental contracts over the last year.

The average rental rate per m² in the area over the last 12 months is 1,030 AED/m² per year. The rental rate trend over the last 2 years is clearly upward: from 750 AED/m² (early 2023) to more than 1,030 AED/m² in the last 12 months.

Rental levels for 1BR units within the building/project cannot be estimated based on DLD data, only at the wider area level.

5. ROI and “fair price” for an investor

At the level of Rigel itself, it is not possible to calculate yield due to the absence of rental contracts in the DLD database.
For the area (Al Barsha South Fourth):
– Current gross ROI for the area = 1,030 / 14,290 ≈ 7.2% per annum (gross, based on the average price per m² and average rent over 12 months).
– The realistic net ROI (taking into account 7–8% costs) is around 6.7–6.8% per annum.

The “fair price” range for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield is 12,880–14,710 AED/m² (calculation: 1,030 / 0.08 and 1,030 / 0.07). For the area, the current market price falls quite accurately within this investment range.

In Rigel, the current market price (10,590 AED/m²) is noticeably below the “fair” level typical for the area. This either reflects a lower status or quality of the project, or offers the investor potential price upside as values converge with the wider area in the future.

6. Conclusions and outlook

– For 1BR transactions in Rigel there is high liquidity and a notable price increase since late 2022 (+20–30% over 2 years), while prices still remain well below the wider area.
– Rental parameters are available only at the area level — Rigel itself has no rental contracts recorded in the DLD database yet.
– The area is developing actively, as confirmed by very high rental liquidity and strong rental growth (from 750 to 1,030+ AED/m² in 2023–2024).
– An investor can enter Rigel below the average price level of Al Barsha South Fourth, with potential appreciation over a 2–3 year horizon towards more typical area averages.
– ROI for the area stands at about 7–7.2% in gross terms and around 6.7% net, taking into account initial costs. For the building itself (Rigel) an exact calculation is not yet possible, but the room for growth is substantial.