ROI analysis of apartment in Ra1n Residence: DLD data and real deals — 26.11.2025

1. Area definition and data structure

Actual location:
According to DLD, RA1N Residence is located in Al Barsha South Fourth and is part of the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. The analysis is conducted at the level of 2-bedroom apartments (2BR), both for the building and for the entire area/master project as a benchmark.

Database structure:
DLD data contains 152 transactions for RA1N Residence, of which 44 are 2BR. Sales transactions are distributed by year: the main activity falls in 2024–2025, with the first sales in 2023. There is no rental data for 2BR in this building, not even at the master-project level, so for rental and yield analysis we use average indicators for the Jumeirah Village Circle — Al Barsha South Fourth area.

2. Sales price dynamics and levels

Transactions and dynamics for the building:
– Share of 2BR — 44 transactions (a meaningful data volume, stable liquidity for the building)
– Over the last 12 months, 19 transactions for 2BR were recorded, indicating active turnover.
– The average 2BR transaction price in the building over the last 12 months is 13,263 AED/sq m.
– Quarterly dynamics for the building: over the last 4 quarters, the average price per sq m ranged approximately from 9,990 to 14,350 AED/sq m, with a noticeable “jump” in summer–autumn 2024.
– The current average price per sq m in the building is 4–8% above the area benchmark for 2BR.

Comparison with the area:
– Area benchmark for Jumeirah Village Circle — Al Barsha South Fourth for 2BR over 12 months: on average 12,716 AED/sq m (around 2.7k transactions per year — extremely high liquidity, the area is popular).
– Area price dynamics have been steadily upward for the last 3 years: from ~8,500 AED/sq m at the beginning of 2022 to ~12,700+ AED/sq m by mid-2025.

3. Rental rate dynamics and levels

For 2BR in RA1N Residence and even across the entire Jumeirah Village Circle master project, no recent rental contracts were identified in DLD, which is typical for new or actively selling developments. Therefore, the analysis uses the overall rental level for all residential leases in Al Barsha South Fourth:
– Average rental rate in the area over the last 4 quarters: from 849 to 967 AED/sq m per year, currently at around 967 AED/sq m.
– The volume of contracts is enormous: more than 4–7k per quarter, with record levels in 2024–2025, confirming established demand and high liquidity.

4. ROI and “fair value” for an investor

– Gross ROI (for the area based on current data): 967 / 12,716 ≈ 7.6% per annum.
– It is not possible to calculate ROI directly for the building due to the absence of rental contracts, but the price gap between the building and the area is small, so area-level figures can be used as a proxy.
– Adjustment to net ROI taking into account transaction costs (7–8% on entry): expected net yield — 7.6% / 1.07 ≈ 7.1% per annum.
– The “investment fair value” entry range for a target yield of 7–8% at current rental rates is: from 12,100 to 13,810 AED/sq m (967 / 0.08 to 967 / 0.07).
– The actual average price in the building (13,263 AED/sq m) is closer to the upper boundary of this range and 4% above the area average. This means that the current price level in the building is in line with area real estate pricing from the perspective of an investor targeting 7–8%.

5. Liquidity and outlook

– Sales and rental turnover are among the highest in Dubai in terms of transaction count (for the area).
– Average deal size and rate levels are adequate; there are no signs of severe oversupply or a “pyramid” pattern.
– Long-term dynamics show steady price growth both in the area and in the building.
– The “premium” of RA1N Residence’s average price over the area is moderate.
– The main risk for an investor is margin compression in case of further large-scale delivery of new stock in the area.

6. Investor conclusions

RA1N Residence (2BR) is a liquid asset in one of Dubai’s most dynamic districts, with high turnover and stable growth in prices and demand, especially in the investment segment. The average transaction price in the building is slightly above the area level, which is currently justified by demand. Asset yields in the area (and approximately for the building) are now around 7–7.5% net when buying at the average price, making RA1N Residence attractive for income-focused investments, especially given strong potential demand. Fair value for new purchases is in the range of 12,100–13,800 AED/sq m; any deals significantly above this corridor require an individual assessment of the specific unit’s quality.