ROI analysis of apartment in Nicholas Residence: DLD data and real deals

1. Area definition and data structure

Actual location: Nicholas Residence is located in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) master development — confirmed by the DLD transaction database.

Transaction volume: Since 2021, 146 sale transactions for this property have been recorded in the DLD database. Both sale and lease data are available; over the last 12 months, 61 rental contracts for apartments of all types have been registered in the project.

2. Price dynamics and levels (purchase)

For 2-bedroom apartments (2BR) in Nicholas Residence:
– The average price per square meter over the last 12 months was 6,673 AED/m².
– Across Al Barsha South Fourth (JVC), for comparable units, the average price level over the same period was 12,874 AED/m².

Quarterly price dynamics for Nicholas Residence (2BR):
– From 2021 to 2024, the average price in the building ranged from 4,445 to 9,638 AED/m², and in recent quarters has been around 6,700–8,700 AED/m².
– By comparison, 2BR apartments in the wider area have consistently moved from 6,600 to 13,000+ AED/m², with a notable price increase starting from 2022.

3. Rental dynamics and levels

For Nicholas Residence:
– The average rental rate per square meter per year for all apartment types over the last 12 months is 1,089 AED/m² per year.
– For the Jumeirah Village Circle master project, the average annual rental rate over the same period is 1,031 AED/m².

Rental dynamics for the building:
– Over the last 5 quarters, rental rates in the building have ranged from ~765 AED/m² (a low outlier) to 1,250–1,302 AED/m².
– Across JVC, the dynamics are more stable: over 4 years, area-wide rates have grown from 660 to 1,066 AED/m² per quarter and are now holding at around 970–1,067 AED/m².

4. Comparative analysis “building vs area”

– Nicholas Residence shows a distinctly low purchase price compared to the average market offers in the area (roughly 1.9 times cheaper than the latest JVC average).
– The rental rate in the building is 5–10% higher than the average rental level in JVC, which makes it attractive for both tenants and investors.

5. Return on investment (ROI) calculation

Gross ROI for the building (last 12 months):
– With an average purchase price of 6,673 AED/m² and an average rent of 1,089 AED/m² per year, the current ROI is ~16.3% per annum.
For the JVC area:
– Purchase price 12,874 AED/m², rent 1,031 AED/m²: ROI ~8.0% per annum.

Adjustment to net ROI, taking into account transaction costs (around 8% on entry):
– For the building, net ROI is approximately 15.1% per annum.
– For the area, around 7.4%.

6. Investment “fair price” range based on a target yield of 7–8%

– For Nicholas Residence, based on rent of 1,089 AED/m² and a target yield of 7–8% per annum, an investor could pay 13,612–15,557 AED per m² (fair range).
– The actual average market price per m² in the building is twice lower than this range, creating extremely favorable conditions for an investor.
– For the area, the fair price range is 12,888–14,729 AED/m² at a target yield of 7–8%, and the actual average market price broadly corresponds to this corridor.

7. Liquidity and demand

– Nicholas Residence has good liquidity: the transaction volume and number of rental contracts confirm strong interest in the asset and the availability of units for purchase and lease.
– JVC shows steady activity, with a sufficiently deep market to support prompt transactions of various types.

8. Conclusions and outlook

– Nicholas Residence currently delivers some of the highest yields among completed buildings in JVC and trades at a clear discount to the area’s average prices.
– The gap between the building’s purchase price and its rental potential indicates undervaluation or specific project features (possibly more budget positioning, which does not always translate into lower rents).
– For an investor, current entry prices are significantly below the “fair range” and provide room for capital appreciation or profitable resale.
– The area market is hot, while the building offers even more attractive entry conditions.
– For an investor with a 3–5 year horizon, Nicholas Residence appears to be an appealing entry point with elevated returns and limited liquidity risk.