ROI analysis of apartment in Azizi Riviera 37: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the district and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, Azizi Riviera 37 is located in the Al Merkadh district, within the Meydan One Community master project.

Data structure and liquidity: A total of 278 apartment sale transactions (including 2-bedroom units) have been recorded in this building. The market structure is sufficient to analyse price dynamics for the building and to make a detailed comparison with the wider district. There is no data on rental contracts for the building itself or for 2-bedroom apartments in the district over the past 12 months. However, the district as a whole shows a large volume of rental transactions in other formats, which allows us to analyse the average rental rate at the level of Al Merkadh overall.

2. Sales price dynamics

Dynamics of the average price per square metre in Azizi Riviera 37 (2-bedroom apartments, entire available history):
– The bulk of transactions falls in 2021 (7 deals) and 2024 (3 deals; only the current year, other years have isolated deals).
– In 2021, the average price per m² was about AED 17,310.
– Over the past 12 months, the average transaction price for 2-bedroom apartments in the building was AED 16,717/m² (4 deals).
– Overall, prices in the building over the past 3 years have ranged from AED 15,900 to 18,170/m² (considering only completed periods, excluding future dates).

Average sale price in Al Merkadh for 2-bedroom apartments (last 12 months): AED 20,219/m² (905 deals). Over the past 3 years, Al Merkadh has shown consistently high transaction volumes with growth in the average price: from ~AED 17,300/m² in 2021 to AED 18,950–21,000+ /m² in 2024.

As a result, Azizi Riviera 37 (2-bedrooms) is priced at roughly 17% below the district’s average market price over the last year.

3. Rental rate dynamics and levels

For Azizi Riviera 37 and for 2-bedroom apartments in Al Merkadh, there are no registered rental contracts in the DLD database over the past 12 months (with correct filters by apartment type and area).

For all apartments in Al Merkadh (a total of more than 11,000 contracts over 12 months), the average actual rental rate is AED 1,550/m² per year.

Dynamics of the average rental rate in the district:
– In 2022, the average rate was about AED 900–1,100/m², followed by a rapid increase: in Q1 2023 — AED 1,150/m², in Q4 2023 — AED 1,350/m², and in the first half of 2024 — AED 1,340–1,458/m².
– Over the past 12 months, a range of AED 1,340–1,550/m² has been established across all apartment types.

4. ROI, investment case and “fair value”

It is not possible to calculate returns at the level of the building or a specific apartment type, as there is no rental data in DLD either for Azizi Riviera 37 or for 2-bedroom apartments in the district.

For general orientation: if we use the district’s average rental rate (for all apartments) and the actual average price of 2-bedroom apartments in the analysed building over the year, we obtain an indicative gross ROI of about 9.3% per annum (calculation: 1,550 / 16,717). Taking into account transactional and related costs (~7%), the indicative net ROI is 8.7% per annum.

The “fair investment price” range that would provide a 7–8% annual yield from apartment rentals in the district is AED 19,375–22,142/m² (calculated as 1,550 / 0.08 and 1,550 / 0.07).

Comparison with the current market:
– The actual average transaction price for 2-bedrooms in the building over the past year is below this range (AED 16,717/m²).
– In the district, transactions are taking place on average at prices above the fair investment range, meaning that new purchases in the wider Al Merkadh market are currently less profitable than Azizi Riviera 37 at its current transaction level.

5. Overall conclusions on liquidity and outlook

In the 2-bedroom segment, Azizi Riviera 37 is characterised by stable demand and lower pricing relative to the Al Merkadh market. The district market is very active in both sales and rentals, with rental rates having grown over the past three years and reaching new highs. Against this backdrop, Azizi Riviera 37 appears more attractive from an investment perspective precisely due to its relative price discount. However, it is currently impossible to refine the assessment of actual rental yields and tenant preferences by unit type within this specific building based on DLD data — there are no such contracts.

Key constraint: there are no recent registered rental transactions for 2-bedroom apartments either in the building itself or in the 2-bedroom segment of the district. This reduces the accuracy of understanding the returns for this specific format and may indicate a predominance of new stock or weak landlord activity in this particular segment.

Overall, the asset appears relatively undervalued compared with a rapidly appreciating district. For an investor focused on formal yield metrics, a necessary condition remains additional verification of the real possibility of renting out a 2-bedroom apartment in this building.