ROI analysis of apartment in MARINA ARCADE: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to the DLD database, the MARINA ARCADE building belongs to the Marsa Dubai area, master project Dubai Marina. The same area is used for all comparisons and benchmarks.

The analysis is based on transactions with apartments (type Flat, residential property only) and lease contracts with validity filters (area and price). The DLD database records 287 apartment sale transactions and 934 lease contracts for MARINA ARCADE, which confirms high liquidity both for the building itself and for its segment.

2. Liquidity and market volume

Over the past 4+ years, transactions in MARINA ARCADE have been steady, with a clear increase in activity starting from 2022. According to DLD, the highest number of deals falls on 2023 (100+ per year). This indicates solid buyer demand, including for resales.

Leasing activity is also stable: in just the last 12 months, around 80–100 rental contracts were signed for MARINA ARCADE (the exact number is visible only in the full dataset, but the database records several hundred active contracts over recent years).

3. Price per square metre dynamics for the building and the area

Growth in the average price per m² in MARINA ARCADE from 2020 to 2024:

– At the beginning of 2020 the average price was about 12,500–14,000 AED/m²;
– In 2023 — 14,500–16,500 AED/m²;
– In 2024 (last 12 months) the average price reached 14,791 AED/m².

In Marsa Dubai, price per m² dynamics are significantly stronger:

– In 2020 — 11,500–16,500 AED/m²;
– In 2022: reaching 20,000–22,000 AED/m²;
– In 2023 — 24,000–29,000 AED/m²;
– Over the last 12 months the average price in the area is 27,064 AED/m².

As a result, MARINA ARCADE has been trading significantly below the area average throughout the entire period (by roughly 40–45%).

4. Dynamics of average rent per m² for the building and the area

Average annual rental rate in MARINA ARCADE based on active contracts (quarterly dynamics):

– 2020 — 675–850 AED/m²;
– 2021–2022 — gradual growth from 700 to 850 AED/m²;
– 2023 — sharp increase: by Q4 2023 the average rent exceeds 950 AED/m²;
– Over the last 12 months the average rent in the building is 1,066.6 AED/m².

For Marsa Dubai, the average rent under active contracts for 2023–2024 is 1,318.3 AED/m² — also significantly higher than in MARINA ARCADE (by ~23%).

5. Distribution of unit sizes and prices

In MARINA ARCADE, apartment sizes range from 10.2 m² to 505.2 m²; the average size is about 150 m². The price per m² in the database ranges from approximately 5,150 to 25,560 AED/m². This substantial spread reflects different apartment types (from studios to large family units), while the highest values are associated with penthouses.

6. Current 12‑month metrics and comparative analysis

MARINA ARCADE (building level):
– Average sale price per m²: 14,791 AED/m² (12 months).
– Average rental rate: 1,066.6 AED/m²/year (12 months).
– Brutto ROI for the building: 7.2% per annum.

Marsa Dubai (benchmark):
– Average sale price per m²: 27,064 AED/m² (12 months).
– Average rental rate: 1,318.3 AED/m²/year (12 months).
– Brutto ROI for the area: 4.9% per annum.

7. Yield comparison and fair price range

– For MARINA ARCADE, brutto yield is significantly above the area level (7.2% versus 4.9%), driven by a lower entry price while rental rates remain solid. Pricing at about 40% below the market explains the higher payback.
– Taking into account acquisition costs (around 7–8% of the total price), net ROI for MARINA ARCADE will be around 6.7% per annum.
– For a “fair price” at a target yield of 7–8%, an investor could focus on a range of 13,333–15,237 AED/m². The current market level (14,791 AED/m²) falls exactly within this corridor — there is no significant margin for additional price growth, but there is also no major discount to fair value.

– For Marsa Dubai, the “fair price” at a 7–8% ROI should be in the range of 16,479–18,833 AED/m². Actual deals are closing with a substantial premium to this range (average — 27,064 AED/m²), so the current yield in the area is noticeably lower.

8. Conclusion on liquidity and outlook

MARINA ARCADE is a highly liquid building where steady flows of sales and leases keep market activity at a high level. The key feature is a very noticeable entry-price discount versus the area, and, as a result, an attractive gross yield for new investors.

Price dynamics for apartments are less volatile than in the wider area; there has been price growth over the last 3 years, but it lags behind the area index. Rental rates have increased confidently, and the building can deliver returns close to the target 7–8% per annum for an investor.

Overall, MARINA ARCADE is suitable both for acquiring long-term investment units and for comfortable end-user living, with strong rental potential. For an investor, the appeal lies precisely in the relatively low entry price combined with stable demand and liquidity. The risk of distorted profitability is reduced thanks to confirmed low volatility and a stable flow of tenants.