ROI analysis of apartment in ELLINGTON HOUSE: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, ELLINGTON HOUSE is located in the Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid area and belongs to the Dubai Hills Estate master project.

Building data structure: The database contains 289 registered sale transactions for this building, which allows for detailed analysis of price dynamics over time.
No registered rental contracts were found directly for the building. For rental analysis, we use aggregated data for the Dubai Hills Estate master project and the Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid area.

2. Sales analysis (dynamics, liquidity, price per square meter)

Sales volume and dynamics:
– Most transactions were registered at the off-plan stage (103 deals in 2025, 41 in 2024, 54 in 2023, 89 in 2022, and a few in 2026), which corresponds to the construction/hand-over phases of the project.
– Liquidity is high for a new development: transaction volume over the last 12 months is 97.

Average price per m² dynamics (by quarter over the last 3 years):
– At the start of sales (2022, Q3–Q4) the average price per m² was 18,800–19,700 AED.
– In 2023 there was rapid growth: from 21,400 AED to 23,000 AED per m².
– During 2024 the average price stabilized in the 20,500–23,000 AED per m² range.

Average sale price per m² over the last 12 months:
– For the building: 23,395 AED/m² (based on 97 transactions).
– For comparison, in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid over 12 months the average price was 23,744 AED/m² (based on more than 5,400 transactions, which ensures high reliability).
– Thus, the price level of the building is very close to the market average for the area and the master project.

3. Rental analysis (rate, dynamics, range, comparison)

No valid rental contracts for ELLINGTON HOUSE were found in DLD at the time of analysis. This is typical for new buildings at the hand-over stage: tenants appear later and the first contracts enter the database with a delay.
To assess the rental market, we use data for the entire Dubai Hills Estate master project (more than 3,400 contracts over 12 months) and the Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid area (5,760 contracts).

– Average annual rent per m² (last 12 months):
– For the master project: 1,599 AED/m²/year
– For the area: 1,454 AED/m²/year

Rental dynamics in Dubai Hills Estate over the last 3 years (by quarter):
– In 2021–2022 rents grew rapidly: from 670 AED/m² to 1,070 AED/m².
– In 2023 growth accelerated: from 1,125 to a peak of ~1,300 AED/m².
– By 2024 the average rent had risen to 1,600 AED/m², reflecting strong demand and occupancy of new buildings.

4. Yield (ROI) and investment assessment

The yield calculation is based only on the master project and the area (there is no data on actual rents in the building):
– Annual gross ROI for the master project: 1,599 / 23,395 = 6.8%
– Annual gross ROI for the area: 1,454 / 23,744 = 6.1%

Taking into account acquisition costs (DLD fee ≈ 4%, broker ≈ 2%, other up to 2%; total ~8%), the effective net yield will be lower by approximately the same magnitude:
– Net ROI for the master project: ~6.3%
– Net ROI for the area: ~5.6%

5. Assessment of a fair price range for an investor (target yield 7–8% per annum)

If we target a 7–8% yield, the fair investment price per m² (based on the current average rent) in Dubai Hills Estate is:
– For an 8% yield: 1,599 / 0.08 = 19,990 AED/m²
– For a 7% yield: 1,599 / 0.07 = 22,843 AED/m²

In other words, to achieve 7–8% per annum, a buyer should enter at 19,990–22,843 AED/m².
The current market level for the building (23,395 AED/m²) and the area (23,744 AED/m²) is already above this range, so an investor targeting a 7–8% yield will need to negotiate a 5–15% discount to the market, or accept a lower yield (6–7%).

6. Comparison of dynamics between the building and the area

– The Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid area and the Dubai Hills Estate master project are among the fastest-growing markets in Dubai over the past 2–3 years.
– Prices in ELLINGTON HOUSE fully follow the area trend, both at launch and today.
– The rental market is showing growth, driven by occupancy of new projects.

7. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook

– Even in the absence of rental contracts for the building itself, investment liquidity in ELLINGTON HOUSE is high: around 100 sales registered over 12 months, with minimal risk of demand weakening.
– For an investor, ELLINGTON HOUSE in terms of pricing and dynamics is essentially in line with an average market project within Dubai Hills Estate. The premium to the area is minimal; the price is not inflated, but there are no special investment advantages compared to the area as a whole.
– Given the area’s growth, capital appreciation prospects are positive (price and rental trends are steadily upward), but yield potential is constrained by high entry prices.
– To achieve a yield above 7% per annum on purchase, a discount relative to recent DLD transactions is required.

8. All estimates are based on actual DLD sales and rental data and do not take into account additional options or apartment fit-out.