ROI analysis of apartment in LUMA PARK VIEWS: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD data, LUMA PARK VIEWS is located in Al Barsha South Fourth and is part of the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. The area has been identified based on an exact match with building_name_en = ‘LUMA PARK VIEWS’ in DLD_transactions.

2. Transaction volume and structure

There are 38 registered transactions on the market for 2-bedroom apartments (2 b/r) in LUMA PARK VIEWS. Sales activity for this unit type is growing, with a peak expected in 2025–2026 (4–16 transactions per quarter). Most deals relate to off-plan/primary market transactions of recent years, reflecting the development stage of the building and the still limited supply of ready rental stock.

3. Price dynamics per square metre in the building

Average price per m² for 2-bedroom apartments:
– In Q3–Q4 2023: around 13,700–14,100 AED/m²,
– In 2024: growth to 14,850–15,000 AED/m²,
– In 2025: further growth; the peak in Q2–Q4 is 16,700–17,500 AED/m²,
– Average over the last 12 months: 16,800 AED/m².

This outperforms the average price dynamics in the area over the same period.

4. Area price dynamics

Average price per m² for apartments (Al Barsha South Fourth, “classic JVC”):
– 2020: 8,500–10,000 AED/m²,
– By 2023: increased to 12,300–13,000 AED/m²,
– In 2024: 13,100–13,600 AED/m²,
– Average over the last 12 months: 15,180 AED/m².

Thus, LUMA PARK VIEWS shows a premium to the area of roughly 11% based on actual transactions over the last 12 months (16,800 vs 15,180 AED/m²).

5. Rentals: volume and dynamics

For LUMA PARK VIEWS there are zero actual rental contracts for 2-bedroom apartments recorded in DLD_rent_contracts. There are no contracts even at the Jumeirah Village Circle master-project level. Across the entire area (Al Barsha South Fourth), rental deals are captured only in an aggregated sample (more than 49,000 residential contracts over 2 years), and only broken down by unit types.

The average annual rental rate per m² in Al Barsha South Fourth over the last 12 months was 1,044 AED/m². This is a rapid increase from 2021: from 570–610 AED/m² to above 1,000 AED/m² by the end of 2024.

Quarterly rental dynamics in the area also confirm the acceleration: at the beginning of 2023 — 745–780 AED/m², by the last quarters of 2024 — 850–970 AED/m².

6. ROI and yield

There is no direct rental data for 2-bedroom apartments in the building itself, so we have to rely on area-level figures.

– Market price per m² in LUMA PARK VIEWS (current, last 12 months): 16,800 AED/m²,
– Market area rent per m² (last 12 months): 1,044 AED/m²,
– Indicative ROI_brutto for the area: 6.2% per annum (1,044 / 16,800).
– Adjusted for initial costs (~7%): ROI_net is around 5.8% per annum.

For a target yield of 7–8% per annum, the fair price range per m² for an investor in this area should be 13,050–14,920 AED/m² (1,044 / 0.08 — 1,044 / 0.07). The actual price per m² in LUMA PARK VIEWS (16,800 AED/m²) is about 12–22% above this target range, which is typical for a new/premium product and for an asset at the key handover stage.

7. Liquidity and outlook

– Sales liquidity is high (38 2-bedroom units sold, stable quarterly activity, inflow of new owners).
– Rental liquidity in the area is high, but for the building itself statistics will only appear once it reaches full operational stage.
– Price and rental growth for both the area and the building are above the Dubai market average, and the gap between the building and area prices is significant.
– For an income-focused investor, entry at the current price looks moderately fair but not optimal: yield is below 7%. Those targeting a premium for liquidity/newness should wait for a more active rollout of the building on the rental market.

8. Conclusion

– For 2-bedroom apartments, LUMA PARK VIEWS shows strong price dynamics and liquidity, outperforming the area averages.
– According to DLD, there is still no recorded track record of actual rentals in the building; ROI calculated at the area level is ~6.2% (net ~5.8%).
– From an investment perspective, the building’s pricing remains above the “fair range” for a 7–8% ROI and is aimed at a premium segment of tenants/buyers.
– For entry prices below 14,000–15,000 AED/m², one can expect a long-term yield of 7–8% assuming the same rental level in the area.