ROI analysis of apartment in Belgravia: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location:
According to the DLD database, the building “BELGRAVIA III” belongs to the Al Barsha South Fourth area within the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. In the DLD, transactions are registered under two buildings: “Belgravia III A” and “Belgravia III B”. The analysis is carried out at the level of both buildings for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR), while for rentals the project name “BELGRAVIA III” is used.

2. Activity and liquidity

In total, 361 transactions have been recorded across both Belgravia III buildings. The transaction frequency dynamics show a smooth project handover followed by steady activity, with peaks in 2021–2022 (53 deals in Q4 2021, 117 deals over the whole of 2022), and stabilization in 2023–2024 at 10–20 deals per quarter. The asset’s liquidity can be considered good: sales have been taking place on both the primary and secondary markets since 2021, and volumes are not declining.

For rentals, more than 700 contracts have been recorded — this confirms strong tenant demand and the relative ease of exiting a lease or changing tenants.

3. Purchase price dynamics and levels

Average transaction price per sq.m for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in Belgravia III:
– In 2020–2021 the dynamics were mixed, with a wide range of 6,300–11,000 AED/sq.m, but from 2022 a consistent upward trend is observed.
– At the beginning of 2022 the average level was 11,000–11,900 AED/sq.m; in 2023: 10,800–11,700 AED/sq.m; in 2024 already 12,700–14,100 AED/sq.m.
– Over the last 12 months, the average level for Belgravia III 1BR units stands at 14,636 AED/sq.m (transactions with atypical sizes and prices have been filtered out).

For comparison: the average level for 1BR apartments in Jumeirah Village Circle is 14,523 AED/sq.m over the same 12 months. Thus, Belgravia III is almost exactly in line with the area, sometimes slightly above it.

4. Rental rate dynamics and levels

There is not enough rental data for strictly 1BR units over the last 12 months (the split class within the project did not produce a valid average), so all apartment rental transactions in BELGRAVIA III were used.
– The average rental rate for all apartment types in the building over the last 12 months is 1,088 AED/sq.m/year.
– Quarterly distribution (2022–2024): the level has been confidently rising from 820–900 AED/sq.m at the beginning of 2022 to 1,030–1,070 AED/sq.m in Q1–Q3 2024, reaching 1,112 AED/sq.m in Q4 2024 and higher in the forecast for 2025.
– Even the two-year range is stable: it fluctuates from 1,044 (Q4 2022) to 1,150 (Q4 2025), which indicates high demand and the resilience of the asset as a rental stock.

5. ROI, fair price, performance benchmarks

ROI_brutto (based on DLD: average rent / average sale price in the building over the last 12 months):
– For Belgravia III: 1,088 / 14,636 ≈ 7.4% per annum (brutto).
Taking into account standard entry costs (7% for commissions, DLD and expenses), the calculated ROI_net is about 6.9–7.0% per annum.

To achieve a target yield of 7–8%:
– Investment-fair price range for this rental level: 1,088 / 0.08 = 13,600 AED/sq.m (for 8%); 1,088 / 0.07 = 15,540 AED/sq.m (for 7%).
– The current market level for 1BR units in the building (14,636 AED/sq.m) is almost exactly in the middle: a purchase at a price below 13,600 looks expensive, above 15,500 — unattractive for a typical buy-to-let investor. No discount to the average price is required, and any premium is minimal — the building is balanced right within the target range.

6. Comparison with the area

Belgravia III fully mirrors the average trend for JVC in terms of both price and yield. There are no outliers or, conversely, strong premiums over the area: liquidity is high, and the price level is even slightly above the district average, which is justified by the building’s recency and quality. ROI for the area is also in the 7–7.5% range (based on sales data and rental levels).

7. Conclusion and outlook

Belgravia III is a liquid, investor-friendly asset with a strong track record of sales and rental contracts. The growth in sale prices over the last two years has almost outpaced the area average, and rents are also rising. An investor buying an apartment today enters a fair ROI range typical for a “healthy” JVC asset: 7.0–7.4% per annum brutto and around 7% netto (after transaction costs). Liquidity, demand and the resilience of the building remain among the best in the area for its class.

The potential for further growth is moderate: prices are already close to the upper boundary of “investment efficiency”, but are supported by rental demand. There is no significant discount versus the area, but the risk of a liquidity downturn is also minimal. It is a solid choice for a conservative income-focused investment over a 3–5 year horizon.