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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to Dubai Land Department, LIV LUX is located in Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina master project). All queries were made strictly by the official DLD building name (“LIV LUX”) and filtered for two-bedroom apartments (2 b/r).
Overall data availability:
— Sales: 72 transactions for two-bedroom apartments in LIV LUX have been recorded.
— Rentals: there is no direct data on rental transactions for 2-bedroom units in LIV LUX, or even across the entire master project (which is typical for new and off-plan projects). For rental analysis, all valid residential apartment contracts in Marsa Dubai were used.
2. Analysis of transaction volume and dynamics
Liquidity: The majority of 2-bedroom sales in LIV LUX occurred in 2023 (68 transactions), with a sharp drop in activity in 2024. This indicates a concentrated primary sales phase (typical for new developments). Residual transactions in subsequent periods are most likely related to the final sell-out of remaining units.
3. Price dynamics for 2-bedroom apartments
For LIV LUX (2-bedroom units only):
— The average price per square meter in 2023 ranged between 28,000–29,900 AED/m², and in 2024 was around 28,000–33,000 AED/m² (the spread is due to the small number of transactions in 2024).
— Over the last 12 months, the average sale price for two-bedroom apartments is 32,185 AED/m².
For comparison, in Marsa Dubai over the same periods:
— The area shows stable price growth — from ~14,000–22,000 AED/m² (2020–2022) to 24,000–29,000 AED/m² in 2023.
— Over the last 12 months, the average price in the area for 2-bedroom apartments is 25,693 AED/m².
As a result, LIV LUX is selling at roughly a 25% premium to the Marsa Dubai average over the last 12 months, which is typical for new premium developments in Dubai Marina.
4. Analysis of rental rates and yields
There are no rental transactions for LIV LUX in the DLD database yet — evidently, the apartments have not yet been brought to the long-term rental market in any significant volume (a typical situation for new buildings with a predominance of primary-market activity).
At the Marsa Dubai area level:
— Rental transaction volume is very high — more than 115,000 contracts in recent years for all residential apartments. The area is extremely liquid in terms of rentals.
— Dynamics of average annual rental rate per m² for apartments: in 2020 — 710–850 AED/m²/year, in 2022 — around 950–1,000 AED/m²/year, in 2023 — around 1,090–1,260 AED/m²/year, and over the last 12 months — 1,307 AED/m²/year. The trend is positive, with an acceleration of growth in 2022–2024.
5. Comparison of ROI and investment potential
Calculated indicators (for Marsa Dubai, since there are no actual rental contracts for LIV LUX yet):
— Average purchase price (area average over last 12 months, 2-bed) — 25,693 AED/m².
— Average annual rent (area average over last 12 months, all apartments) — 1,307 AED/m²/year.
The current average gross ROI in the area is about 5.1% per annum (1,307 / 25,693).
Adjustment to net ROI, taking into account DLD fee, broker commission and other one-off costs (~7–8% of initial outlay):
— Net ROI — approximately 4.7–4.8% per annum.
6. Fair price range for a target yield of 7–8%
If we target a realistic investor yield of 7–8% per annum, the fair purchase price range (for the area) is:
— At 8%: 1,307 / 0.08 ≈ 16,338 AED/m²
— At 7%: 1,307 / 0.07 ≈ 18,672 AED/m²
Current transactions in LIV LUX at 32,185 AED/m² (2-bed) and in the area overall at 25,693 AED/m² are significantly above the investment level that would imply a 7–8% yield. To reach that level, market prices would need to correct down by roughly 27–50% from current values.
7. Conclusions and outlook
— LIV LUX is a new premium development, with sales taking place mainly in 2023. This explains the absence of rental contracts: apartments are only now being handed over and occupied.
— Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina) remains one of the most liquid and investment-attractive rental markets: the number of rental contracts is enormous, and rental rates are steadily increasing.
— However, in premium new-builds (such as LIV LUX) the initial price per square meter carries a substantial premium to the area average — around 25%.
— The current gross yield for 2-bedroom apartments in the area is about 5.1% per annum, with net yield around 4.7–4.8% (excluding vacancy and maintenance costs).
— Current purchase prices in LIV LUX and even across the area are still far from levels that would provide a 7–8% ROI, which limits the investment potential from an income-yield perspective, but strongly positions the area (and this specific building) as a solid location for capital investment with long-term price growth and/or lifestyle-driven investing.
— Potential sellers can justify a premium to the area average; for investors targeting a 7–8% yield, the ideal entry point would require a substantial discount (which is unlikely for new luxury projects). Current price dynamics also indicate high resilience and strong demand in this segment.
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