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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: The Kensington Waters building is confirmed in DLD records as the “KENSINGTON WATERS” project, territorially located in the Al Merkadh area, within the SOBHA HARTLAND master development.
For the analysis, only transactions for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) were used, filtered directly by project (KENSINGTON WATERS), as well as aggregated data for the Al Merkadh area to calibrate comparative market benchmarks.
2. Liquidity and transaction volume
A total of 223 sales transactions for 1-bedroom apartments in KENSINGTON WATERS have been recorded over the entire observation period (core years 2022–2025).
Annual breakdown:
– 2022: 79 transactions,
– 2023: 43 transactions,
– 2024: 39 transactions,
– 2025 (likely including forward/initial registrations): 62 transactions.
This indicates good liquidity and strong demand for 1BR units in this new development, especially in the first years after launch.
Rentals: 153 lease contracts have been recorded in the building across all apartment types, but not a single valid DLD rental contract for 1BR units over the last 12 months (similarly for the master project/area). This is typical for ultra-new projects/primary handovers: market rental data in the public DLD database appears with a time lag.
3. Sales price dynamics
Throughout the entire period, prices for 1-bedroom apartments in KENSINGTON WATERS have been growing almost every year:
– 2022: average price per m² from 16,268 to 17,389 AED
– 2023: increase to 17,702–18,909 AED/m²
– Q1 2024: a historically highest level was recorded — around 19,388 AED/m², although quarterly volatility is present due to the small size of individual samples.
– Individual transactions registered in Q3 2024 and Q1 2025 reach 21,600–23,170 AED/m², with the overall average for the building over the last 12 months at approximately 20,174 AED/m².
Comparison with Al Merkadh (comparable apartments):
– Average price level for 1BR units in the area over the last 12 months: 20,584 AED/m²
– The historical trend in the area also confirms growth: from 16,900–19,115 AED/m² in 2022 to 21,335–21,414 AED/m² at the upper bound in 2024.
Thus, current prices per m² in KENSINGTON WATERS are roughly in line with the area average, fluctuating with a slight premium or at market level — the difference does not exceed 2–3%.
4. Market rent and yield (ROI)
Unfortunately, there is no DLD data for 1BR rentals in the building itself, the master project, or the area over the last 12 months — even area-level aggregates do not return valid rates (there is not enough data to calculate an average annual rent per m²).
The reasons may be related to the recent completion of construction, a high share of non-resident owners, or delays in publishing lease contracts in the public DLD database.
Accordingly:
– It is impossible to calculate a valid ROI (yield) and a range of “investment fair value” with a target yield of 7–8% based on rent — this would be pure speculation without support from DLD data.
– For an investor with a financial focus: any yield estimates for KENSINGTON WATERS today are based only on assumptions or third-party market sources and are not confirmed by official DLD transaction statistics.
– For reference: in other new projects in Al Merkadh, typical market yields for 1BR units may be in the 6.5–8% range, but these are not DLD figures and are NOT taken into account here.
5. Overall outlook and pricing policy
KENSINGTON WATERS is a liquid new development in the premium Sobha Hartland (Al Merkadh) area with stable buyer demand at the launch stage. A smooth annual price appreciation has been recorded, and at this stage the average price per m² fully corresponds to the level of the area’s top residential projects, without a significant premium or discount.
However, for a potential rental-focused investor, it is important to note that the absence of official DLD rental data for 1BR units temporarily rules out a formal yield calculation and justification of a “fair investment price” within an ROI model.
Recommendations:
– For speculative resale/capital appreciation, the development remains competitive and, judging by the transaction volume, retains good liquidity.
– For entry with a rental or buy-to-let strategy, it is advisable to wait for confirmed DLD rental benchmarks to appear or to rely on third-party agency sources, explicitly allowing for a margin of error.
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