ROI analysis of apartment in Marina Shores: DLD data and real deals — 02.12.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: the MARINA SHORES building is situated within the Marsa Dubai area, master project Dubai Marina. The analysed unit is a 1-bedroom apartment (1BR), and the building is registered in the DLD database as MARINA SHORES.

The volume of information is sufficient for a comprehensive analysis of transaction dynamics, current market levels (price per m²), and rental rate statistics at the area level. There is currently no direct rental data for the MARINA SHORES building or the Dubai Marina master project, as there are no registered contracts at this address in the DLD database (most likely due to the recent completion and late start of occupancy).

2. Liquidity of the property and the area

For MARINA SHORES (1BR), 232 sale transactions have been recorded since the project launch, with the bulk of them concentrated at the end of 2022 (mass registration in Q4). In subsequent quarters, only isolated transactions have been recorded — a typical pattern for newly completed buildings, where the main volume of sales occurs at launch (off-plan), followed by low secondary activity until occupancy is completed and a “live” internal market is formed.

Overall, transaction volume in Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina area) is consistently high, and in terms of rentals, almost 58,000 lease contracts have been registered in the area over the past three years (all apartment types and sizes, without a bedroom filter). This indicates sustained high liquidity and strong demand for the location both for purchase and for rent.

3. Price dynamics for 1BR MARINA SHORES vs Area (Marsa Dubai)

At the MARINA SHORES (1BR) level:
– In Q3 2022 the average price per m² was about 22,700 AED, then in Q4 it was about 23,100 AED.
– In 2023 it gradually increased and reached 28,100 AED in Q3, then smoothly declined to 24,400–25,800 AED in 2024.
– Over the last 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024) the average transaction price per m² was 26,677 AED.

For 1-bedroom properties in Marsa Dubai:
– In 2020–2021 the average price per m² ranged from 12,000 to 19,000 AED, and in 2022 it reached up to 22,000 AED, reflecting a strong post-pandemic market rally.
– The peak values were observed in Q2 2023 — more than 31,000 AED per m² (a local price peak).
– Over the last 12 months the average price in the area has been 26,020 AED per m², meaning the actual price gap between the new MARINA SHORES building and the area average for 1BR units is minimal (~2.5%).

Bottom line: MARINA SHORES is currently priced at or slightly above the area average (about a 2% premium).

4. Rental rate dynamics (Marsa Dubai area)

There is no direct rental data for MARINA SHORES and the Dubai Marina master project — as of today there are no registered contracts under these filters. For Marsa Dubai (all apartments) over the last 12 months, the average rental rate is 1,307 AED/m²/year.

The area has shown confident rental growth since 2021:
– In 2021 the average rate did not exceed 800–1,000 AED/m².
– In 2022 it was 940–1,008 AED/m².
– In 2023 and early 2024 the rate has consistently exceeded 1,150–1,300 AED/m².

Important: this figure is averaged across a broad pool of apartments (without isolating only new buildings and without separating premium components), but it provides a basic benchmark for yield calculations.

5. Comparison of sale and rental levels over the last 12 months

– Average sale price per m² over the last 12 months:
– MARINA SHORES (1BR) — 26,677 AED
– Marsa Dubai area (1BR) — 26,020 AED

– Average rent per m² in the area over the last 12 months — 1,307 AED

– There is no direct rental data (rent_psm) for the MARINA SHORES building itself or the master project.

6. Yield (ROI) analysis and “fair price”

Since there is no rental data for the building, ROI can only be calculated at the Marsa Dubai area level (an average rate that does not provide any guarantee for a specific apartment):

– Gross yield for the area: 1,307 / 26,020 ≈ 5.0% per annum.
– If we factor in initial purchase costs of about 7% (DLD, agency, legalisation, etc.), it is reasonable to assume a net yield (ROI) of around 4.7% per annum.

– To reach a 7–8% annual yield, an investor would need either a higher rental rate (which is not observed in the current area) or a price reduction into the 16,300–18,600 AED/m² range (more than 25% below current transaction levels). This is unachievable within the current price band.

A fair price range for a buyer/investor targeting 7–8% per annum: 16,300–18,700 AED/m² (based on the average area rent). Actual transactions are taking place significantly higher — yields for new buyers in MARINA SHORES (and similar new buildings in the area) will be materially below 7% when purchasing at market price.

7. Conclusions

– The MARINA SHORES building is a recent project; the main wave of sales occurred at launch (Q4 2022), and current liquidity is low, with only sporadic transactions.
– Entering at current prices (26,700 AED/m²), the market already reflects the building’s newness, location and quality, so there is effectively no premium to the wider area.
– Marsa Dubai/Dubai Marina remains one of the most active and sought-after locations in Dubai, with high transaction volumes and a very large rental market.
– Yield potential for new investors buying in MARINA SHORES is modest: even with full rental occupancy, area-level ROI is around 5% gross and 4.7% net. There is no basis for achieving 7–8% per annum at current prices.
– The driver for capital appreciation is limited in the short term, but in the long term this is a location with developed infrastructure, good transport accessibility and stable rental demand.
– Recommendation: MARINA SHORES is attractive for own use and long-term holding, but if the priority is high yield / investment for rental income, the current entry price level does not imply high returns; the market is at a dynamically balanced point of supply and demand.