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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD data, the building Jomana 5 belongs to the Um Suqaim Third area, Jomana project. The master project is not explicitly specified in the database. All further comparisons will be made at the Um Suqaim Third area level.
2. Data structure and liquidity
Sales: For Jomana 5, 17 transactions for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) have been recorded — all of them took place in Q2 and Q3 2023, which indicates that the project is recent and was off-plan at the time of registration. Over the past 12 months there have been no new 1BR transactions in this particular building, but within the wider Jomana project there has been sufficient activity: dozens of deals, while the market benchmark for the area is hundreds of transactions per quarter.
Rentals:
- There are still no rental contracts for 1-bedroom apartments either in the building or across the Jomana project.
- At the Um Suqaim Third area level, there is plenty of data (over 3,600 residential rental contracts in recent years), so area-level figures are used for further estimates.
3. Price dynamics and market level
Sales (prices per m²):
- In Jomana 5, 1BR transactions occurred only in Q2 and Q3 2023: average prices per m² were 28,142 and 29,808 AED respectively.
- Across the Jomana project, the average price per m² for 1BR over the past 12 months is 28,952 AED.
- In Um Suqaim Third, the average price per m² for 1BR over the past 12 months is 27,335 AED.
It is clear that new properties in Jomana are selling at a 5–6% premium to the area average.
Dynamics: In Um Suqaim Third over the last three years there has been strong growth: from 18,000–22,000 AED/m² in spring 2022 to 32,000+ AED/m² at the beginning of 2024; in recent quarters, growth has given way to stabilization and a mild correction.
Rent (per m² per year):
- The average rental rate for the area over the past 12 months is 1,281 AED/m² per year, and in some quarters it exceeded 1,300 AED/m².
- There are no confirmed rental rates for the building or the project; a forecast based solely on the “DLD database” is not acceptable.
4. ROI and investment benchmarks
Gross ROI for the area (based on the current 12‑month rental and price levels):
- With an average purchase price of 27,335 AED/m² and rent of 1,281 AED/m² per year, the area-level ROI is around 4.7% before expenses.
- Taking into account initial costs (approximately +7–8% to the purchase price), the adjusted net ROI_net is slightly above 4.3%.
Fair price range for a target yield of 7–8% per annum in the market:
- For an investor using the area as a benchmark: to achieve 7–8% per annum at the average rent level, the “fair” price per m² should be in the range of 16,013–18,299 AED/m², which is significantly below even the current transaction levels in the area.
- Actual deals both in the area and especially in Jomana 5/Jomana are closing at a clear premium to these investment benchmarks.
5. Conclusion on liquidity and investment outlook
- The Um Suqaim Third area has a high volume of both sales and rental transactions — liquidity is excellent.
- The Jomana project and the Jomana 5 building are modern offerings positioned at the upper market price levels, with a premium to the area.
- An investor targeting a 7–8% yield needs either to secure a significant discount to the market (which is unlikely for new projects), or to focus on moderate yield or capital gains from future price growth.
- The area shows consistently rising rents and capital values, but current prices for new apartments make high-yield entry challenging; realized ROI in the area based on actual transactions is 4.3–4.7% (net/gross), which is typical for prestigious and fast-developing Dubai locations.
- In the absence of confirmed rental contracts for the building/project itself, ROI and the fair price range are provided only at the area level.
- Over a 3–5 year horizon, the outlook for premium assets in Um Suqaim Third is driven more by capital appreciation than by high cash yield.
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