1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location:
– According to Dubai Land Department (DLD), the GRAND HORIZON 1 building is located in Al Hebiah Fourth (Dubai Sports City master project).
– The DLD database contains a substantial volume of transaction data for apartment sales in this building, including one-bedroom units (“1 b/r”).
Data volume:
– For GRAND HORIZON 1 (one-bedroom, residential “Unit/Flat” apartments), 80 transactions have been recorded.
– In DLD_rent_contracts, at the building and master-project level there are no confirmed rental contracts for this building and this unit type — all valid rental data is aggregated at the Al Hebiah Fourth district level, where there are over 51,000 contracts for residential units (Flat) without a detailed breakdown by number of bedrooms.
2. Sales analytics for apartments (one-bedroom)
Transaction volume and dynamics:
– By year, activity is relatively stable with a steady upward trend:
• 2020 — 5 transactions,
• 2021 — 6,
• 2022 — 10,
• 2023 — 13,
• 2024 — 23 (as of the analysis date).
– The dynamics reflect increased interest in the property over the past 1–2 years.
Average price per m² dynamics (one-bedroom, GRAND HORIZON 1):
– Quarterly range for 2020–2024: from 4,725 to 7,785 AED/m².
– During 2022–2023 there were peaks (up to 13,500 AED/m² in one of the quarterly deals), however most sales were in the 5,700–7,300 AED/m² range.
– Average price over the last 12 months: 7,113 AED/m² based on actual DLD transactions for the building.
Comparison with Al Hebiah Fourth:
– DLD algorithms indicate the following benchmarks for one-bedroom apartments in Al Hebiah Fourth:
• Average prices per m² in 2020–2022 — typically 5,700–8,200 AED/m².
• 2023–2024: a shift into the 8,000–11,400 AED/m² range.
• Average price in the district over the last 12 months: 11,319 AED/m².
– Thus, the current average price in GRAND HORIZON 1 (7,113 AED/m²) is significantly below the district average (–37%).
3. Rental analytics
Actual data for the building and master project:
– For GRAND HORIZON 1 (and Dubai Sports City as a whole), no hypothesised rental contracts for one-bedroom apartments were found in DLD_rent_contracts.
– At the Al Hebiah Fourth district level, there is a substantial array of active contracts for residential apartments (with confirmed area), which allows for building an average district benchmark.
Average rental rate:
– The average annual rental rate in the district over the last 12 months: 910 AED/m²/year (calculated across all residential apartments).
– Current dynamics of quarterly rates:
• In 2022, average values were 520–580 AED/m²/year.
• In 2023, growth to 620–730 AED/m²/year (note: pay attention to the 23,500 AED/m² outlier in Q2 2023, which can be treated as an anomaly).
• In 2024 (recent quarters): already 749–818 AED/m²/year.
• Over the last 12 months, the district market average has moved up to ~910 AED/m²/year.
4. Yield assessment and fair price
Gross ROI — annual rental yield at the current average price:
– For GRAND HORIZON 1 (transaction price), applying the district rental rate:
ROI_brutto = 910 / 7113 ≈ 12.8% per annum (an exact estimate for the building itself is impossible, as there are no direct rental contracts).
– For Al Hebiah Fourth (and its average sales levels):
ROI_brutto = 910 / 11 319 ≈ 8.0% per annum.
Adjustment for entry/transaction costs (ROI_net):
– Typical purchase costs (DLD fee, broker, registration, etc.) amount to ~7–8% of the price.
– Effective yield (ROI_net):
• For actual transactions in the building — 11.9–12.0% per annum;
• For the district average — 7.5–7.7% per annum.
“Fair price” range for an investor (target ROI 7–8% per annum):
– For the district: fair value = [910/0.08 ; 910/0.07] = 11,375 – 13,000 AED/m².
– The current average price in GRAND HORIZON 1 (7,113 AED/m²) is significantly below the range corresponding to a 7–8% target yield, which makes it a potentially very attractive asset for an investor, provided the apartment can be rented out at average district rates.
5. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook
– GRAND HORIZON 1 is a property with demonstrably high sales liquidity; over the past 2 years the transaction volume has increased significantly.
– The current average price in the building remains well below the district level, despite the overall market acceleration in Al Hebiah Fourth.
– The district rental market is developing steadily: the average rate over the past year has grown by 20–25%, and demand remains consistently high in terms of the number of contracts (the scale of the DLD sample confirms liquidity).
– Given the current price discount, the building looks extremely attractive for investment purchases, provided that district rental rates are achievable for this residential complex.
– Indicatively, to achieve the district-level yield of 7–8% per annum, the market price of an apartment should be in the 11,300–13,000 AED/m² range; actual prices in the building allow for a higher yield (but note that real rental performance may depend on justifying the rate for this specific building and the demand for it).
6. Limitations
– For GRAND HORIZON 1, the DLD database has no rental contracts for 1BR apartments — ROI is calculated solely on the basis of district-level average benchmarks. The building data does not reflect guaranteed leasing performance in this specific tower.
– All yield estimates are indicative and based on current DLD data. Actual achievable rental rates and final investment outcomes may differ.
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