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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: The Canal Crown project (CANAL CROWN in DLD) is registered as part of the Business Bay district, with Business Bay also being the master project. There are 333 transactions recorded for the project over the entire period, of which 95 relate to studios (0BR). There is no separate rental data in the database for the Canal Crown building, so for the rental block we use only the results for the Business Bay district.
2. Sales dynamics and structure (over 3–5 years)
Sales of studios in Canal Crown only started in 2023:
– 2023 — 77 transactions, the start of active off-plan sales
– 2024 — 12 transactions
– 2025 — 6 transactions (reflect only those registered at the time of analysis; some dates likely correspond to reservations/resales)
Average transaction price at the level of the entire building/studios by quarter over the active sales period:
– The peak average transaction is recorded in the second half of 2023 and 2024, with values fluctuating between AED 32,000 and 34,500 per m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price for studios in Canal Crown is AED 24,735/m² (only 6 transactions — extremely low liquidity and high volatility of the average price).
For comparison — in Business Bay (studios, last 12 months): AED 27,907/m² based on more than 4,800 transactions. In peak periods the overall district showed values between AED 25,000 and 29,000/m² (quarters of 2023–2025), which is comparable to, and sometimes higher than, transactions in Canal Crown over the last 12 months.
Thus, the snapshot of the average price level has recently shifted downward in the project itself relative to the district, which may be explained by the ratio of reservations/assignment contracts or by a change in the structure of supply.
3. Rental market analysis
There are no rental contracts for Canal Crown in DLD, which is typical for new off-plan projects without occupancy. The analysis is carried out for the Business Bay district.
– In Business Bay over the last 12 months more than 16,700 residential rental contracts (all types) have been concluded. The average annual rental rate is AED 1,310/m².
– From 2022 to 2025 rental rates have grown significantly: from AED 805–940/m² in 2022 (by quarter) to AED 1,160–1,370/m² in 2024–2025. In recent years the district has shown steady growth.
4. “Building vs district” benchmarking, liquidity
The transaction volume for studios in Canal Crown is limited — on average fewer than 10 transactions per quarter over the last year, which indicates a sales stage dominated by reservations/assignments, typical for new projects. Across the district as a whole, liquidity is high (hundreds to thousands of sales and tens of thousands of rental contracts per year).
Over the last 12 months, the average achieved sale price for studios in Canal Crown is below the district average (AED 24,735/m² vs. AED 27,907/m²), but the sample size is minimal. For the Business Bay market, the relevant rental level is AED 1,310/m² and the success rate of placing studios on the rental market is high.
5. ROI calculation and fair price range
– Last 12 months:
– Sales in Canal Crown: AED 24,735/m² (very limited liquidity)
– Sales in the district: AED 27,907/m²
– Rentals in the district: AED 1,310/m²/year
It is not possible to calculate an indicative yield for a purchase in Canal Crown due to the absence in DLD of any rental contract for this asset. For Business Bay:
– Gross ROI for the district: 1,310 / 27,907 = 4.7% per annum
– After deducting all transactional costs (net ROI): 4.7% / 1.07 ≈ 4.4% per annum
Fair “investment price” range for a target yield of 7–8%:
– At 7%: 1,310 / 0.07 = AED 18,714/m²
– At 8%: 1,310 / 0.08 = AED 16,375/m²
Current transaction prices both in Canal Crown and across Business Bay significantly exceed this “investment fair” range for the desired yield level of 7–8%, which is typical for fast-growing off-plan projects and highly demanded districts. As for calculating a fair price specifically for the building — there is no rental market yet, so no accurate estimates are possible.
6. Conclusions
– Canal Crown is a new asset with infrequent primary or assignment transactions for studios, and there is still no data on rentals and operation.
– The Business Bay district shows high liquidity and steady long-term growth in prices and rental rates (over 5 years, rental growth of 1.5–1.7x), but at the moment yields do not exceed 4.5–4.7% per annum based on actual DLD transactions, which is below typical investment expectations for Dubai.
– An investor should consider a long investment horizon for this building, given prices close to historical highs and the relative lag in rental rates.
– Achieving ROI >7% at the current price level is not feasible either for the district or for the building; to reach this in future rentals, the building would require a premium to the market rental rate or a discount to current sales prices.
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