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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, Binghatti Mirage is located in Al Barsha South Fourth and is part of the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. All queries and analysis were based on strict adherence to this data.
For Binghatti Mirage, the DLD database records 284 apartment sale transactions and 383 rental contracts over the entire period. The analysis was carried out at the building level, with benchmarks taken for the Al Barsha South Fourth area.
2. Liquidity of the property and the area
Binghatti Mirage has shown stable market activity since Q2 2021. Over the entire period from 2021 to 2024, between 1 and 118 transactions were registered per quarter, which characterises the property as sufficiently liquid, especially at the launch stage, when deals were highly concentrated.
In the rental segment, the building demonstrates strong demand: more than 380 contracts have been recorded for the analysed period, with a steady flow of new leases, particularly over the last 2 years. This indicates consistent tenant demand.
3. Sale price dynamics for the building and the area
Average price per square metre in Binghatti Mirage:
– At the start of sales (2021) it was in the range of 6,400–8,300 AED/m².
– From 2023 a confident upward trend has been observed: by the end of 2023 average prices had risen to 9,200–11,000 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price amounted to 10,740 AED/m² (for the entire building, apartments only).
For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth:
– In 2021: 7,300–8,600 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months: already 15,035 AED/m².
– The current area level is noticeably higher than that of Binghatti Mirage, which indicates either further upside potential for prices in the building, or that the property has not yet caught up with the area benchmarks.
4. Rental rate dynamics
For Binghatti Mirage:
– Since the building was commissioned and the first long-term tenants appeared (from 2022), the annual rent per m² has been gradually increasing.
– In 2022: 670–800 AED/m²/year.
– In 2023: 800–910 AED/m²/year.
– Over the last 12 months, the average rent has been around 999 AED/m²/year.
For Al Barsha South Fourth, rental growth has been slightly ahead:
– In 2023: 745–810 AED/m²/year.
– Over the last 12 months: the average has already reached 1,033 AED/m²/year.
At both levels (building and area), rental dynamics over the past 2 years have been positive, indicating strong demand and declining vacancy in the segment of modern apartments in the area.
5. Comparative analysis of current price levels and yields
Binghatti Mirage is currently slightly behind the average area level in terms of sale price per m². The average transaction price in the building is 10,740 AED/m², versus 15,035 AED/m² in the area over the last year. However, the average rent in the building is almost equal to the area’s rental benchmark (999 vs. 1,033 AED/m²/year).
Yield calculation for the last 12 months:
– Gross yield (ROI) for the building = 999 / 10,740 ≈ 9.3% per annum.
– Gross yield (ROI) for the area = 1,033 / 15,035 ≈ 6.9% per annum.
Adjustment to “net” yield, taking into account typical transaction costs (around 7–8% on exit):
– Indicatively, net yield (ROI net) for Binghatti Mirage is about 8.6–8.7% per annum;
– for the area — around 6.4%.
This makes the current price level in Binghatti Mirage highly attractive for an investor, especially given the visible potential for growth up to area levels.
6. Fair price range for an investor (“break-even price”)
Given a target yield of 7–8% per annum:
– Fair price range for an investor in Binghatti Mirage: 999 / 0.08 = 12,488 AED/m² (for 8%) and 999 / 0.07 = 14,271 AED/m² (for 7%).
– Thus, the current average price (10,740 AED/m²) is significantly below this range: to achieve the target yield of 7–8%, there is either room for future price growth on resale, or this is an entry point with a yield premium.
– For the area, the fair price would be 1,033 / 0.08 = 12,913 AED/m² (for 8%) and 1,033 / 0.07 = 14,757 AED/m² (for 7%), which is very close to the actual transaction price level (15,035 AED/m²).
7. Conclusions and outlook for an investor
– Binghatti Mirage is a liquid and in-demand property with a high rental load.
– The growth rate of the average apartment price in the building outpaces that of the area, and if this trend continues there is likely potential for further capital appreciation.
– For an investor, entering the building now provides a demonstrative yield of 8.6–9.3% per annum (brutto), which is noticeably higher than the area average and most comparable JVC properties.
– Given the current parameters and the ongoing positive real estate market in Al Barsha South Fourth, Binghatti Mirage can be viewed as an investment-sound choice, especially when purchased at a discount to area prices. The large volume of rental transactions further reduces vacancy risk.
8. Risk range and disclaimers
– All calculations are based solely on aggregated DLD samples for the last 12 months.
– Sale and rental prices for individual units may vary significantly depending on view, floor, size and condition of the apartment.
– In the event of a sharp change in market conditions (drop in demand, increase in supply in JVC), price and yield may adjust downwards.
– The final figures are not an official valuation and should be treated as indicative reference parameters based on DLD data.
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