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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the PARK ONE building is located in Al Barsha South Fifth and is part of the Jumeirah Village Triangle master project. In the DLD database, using the PARK ONE filter, transactions were found for 2-bedroom apartments (2 b/r), as well as a sufficient volume of lease contracts across the entire building.
Sample structure:
– Sale transactions for 2-bedroom apartments in PARK ONE: 23 for the entire period.
– Lease contracts in the building (any apartment type): 147.
– There are no new rental contracts specifically for 2-bedroom apartments; we use the full pool of units in the building to estimate market rent.
– As a benchmark, we compare with Al Barsha South Fifth for the residential flat/unit categories.
2. Sales market dynamics
For PARK ONE (2-bedroom apartments):
– The number of transactions per quarter is small – in different periods from 1 to 4.
– The average price per m² fluctuated: in 2020–2022 — around 6,000–6,500 AED/m².
– From mid‑2023 a sharp increase is visible: quarterly averages of ~9,000–13,000+ AED/m², with a peak of up to 13,000 AED/m² recorded in one of the quarters of 2024.
For Al Barsha South Fifth:
– The transaction volume has been growing annually, reaching hundreds of deals per quarter.
– Average prices per m² were compressed within the range: in 2020–2021 — 7,000–9,000 AED/m², in 2022 — 8,900–10,600 AED/m².
– 2023 shows explosive growth: up to 16,600 AED/m² by autumn, followed by a softening to around 13,000–15,000 AED/m² in 2024.
Over the last 12 months, median sale price per m²:
– For PARK ONE (2-bedroom): 12,419 AED/m².
– In Al Barsha South Fifth (apartments): 16,285 AED/m².
PARK ONE is trading 24% below the district average (data for the period May 2023 – May 2024).
3. Rental rates
There are no recent new rental contracts specifically for 2-bedroom apartments in PARK ONE, however, across the building as a whole the average annual rent per m² (all apartments, valid areas and amounts) over the last 12 months is 921 AED/m².
– For Al Barsha South Fifth, the average rental level for the same period is 947 AED/m².
Rental dynamics for PARK ONE:
– 2020–2021: 570–680 AED/m².
– 2022: around 670 AED/m².
– 2023: increase to 730 AED/m², then down to 680 AED/m² by year-end.
– 2024: stabilisation in the 730–780 AED/m² range.
Rental dynamics for the district are similar, but the overall level and volatility are slightly lower; growth from 400 to 900+ AED/m² over 4 years.
4. ROI and yield interpretation
Estimated yield indicators (brutto ROI):
– For PARK ONE (current averages): 7.4% per annum (rent/price per m²: 921 / 12,419).
– For Al Barsha South Fifth – 5.8% (947 / 16,286).
– It should be borne in mind that for the building the rental level was calculated without breakdown by unit type (due to the absence of 2BR data), which may introduce a slight distortion, but the overall picture for the building and the district is close.
For adjusted yield (net ROI), taking into account all “entry” costs (DLD, broker, registration, vacancy and others – in total about 7–8% of the transaction price):
– For PARK ONE: 6.85–6.9% (brutto divided by 1.07–1.08).
– For the district: 5.4–5.5%.
A fair price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum is calculated as “rental rate per m² / 0.08” and “rental rate per m² / 0.07”:
– For PARK ONE (building): 11,509 – 13,153 AED/m².
– For the district: 11,838 – 13,529 AED/m².
The current average price for the building (12,419) lies exactly within this range, below the district average and slightly above the lower bound of the “fair price” range. This means achieving the stated 7–8% ROI is realistic, especially given frequent discounts to headline asking prices in actual deals.
5. Liquidity and conclusions
– Transactions for PARK ONE (2BR) occur on a relatively regular basis, price volatility is moderate, and no significant distortions or gaps are observed.
– Rental indicators for both the building and the district are steadily rising, the volume of lease contracts is high — rental demand is stable.
– The current price level relative to the district suggests there is still potential either for further capital growth or for maintaining yield.
– Overall, for an investor with a 3–5 year horizon, the risk of rental rates/prices falling below current averages is low: the district is in a positive growth phase, liquidity is high, and the potential to maintain yield (6.5–7% net) is present, but for new acquisitions it is reasonable to target a price band not higher than 13,000 AED/m².
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