ROI analysis of apartment in Belgravia Heights II: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the Belgravia Heights II building is registered in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the master project Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC). The data is confirmed by DLD filtering. The analysis uses transactions for 1 bedroom apartments (“1 b/r”).

More than 220 transactions have been registered in total for the building over the entire period, which allows for reliable statistical estimates at both building and unit-type level. For rentals in Belgravia Heights II, DLD records more than 90 contracts (across all apartment types), but specifically for 1 bedroom units there is zero visibility, so rental and yield calculations were made using all apartment sizes in the building, with benchmark checks at the district level.

2. Liquidity and sales: 3–5 year dynamics

Belgravia Heights II is a liquid asset with stable transaction volumes, with the main “flow” falling in 2022–2025. In 2022 there were 75 transactions, in 2023 — 48 transactions, in 2024 — already 16 (at the time of analysis), and in 2025 there are 79 recorded (likely including “delayed” registrations, or deals registered before the actual occupancy stage).

Dynamics of the average price per square metre for 1-bedroom units in the building in recent years:
– 2020: 9,365–10,370 AED/m²
– 2021: around 10,370 AED/m²
– 2022: growth to 11,085 AED/m² (2nd half)
– 2023: range 9,614–12,245 AED/m² (clear seasonality)
– 2024: range 10,674–13,962 AED/m² (current volatility)
– Last registered value (Q2 2025): 14,900 AED/m² (DLD data is recorded up to future periods as of registration date and may be shifted relative to actual use).

For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth (including the entire apartment stock) the price range over the last two years has moved into 13,000–15,500 AED/m² (in 2024–2025), with a pronounced growth trend starting in 2023. Thus, Belgravia Heights II has historically traded slightly below the district, but in 2024 the gap has almost closed, and in some quarters prices in the building are slightly below the district average.

Average transaction price per m² over the last 12 months for 1-bedroom units in Belgravia Heights II: 14,679 AED/m².
District average over the same period: 15,436 AED/m².

3. Rental market: levels and dynamics

There are no registered 1-bedroom rental contracts in this building (0 contracts under the 1-bedroom filter), however at the level of the entire building (all apartments) and the Al Barsha South Fourth district, the statistics are stable:
– In the building itself, the average rental rate over the last 12 months is 1,255 AED/m² per year.
– In the district over the same period — 1,039 AED/m² per year.
– By quarter: since the beginning of 2024, rents in the building have remained in the range of 1,200–1,400 AED/m² per year.

Rental dynamics in the district show confident growth from early levels (500–800 AED/m² in 2020–2022) to 850–1,000 AED/m² from 2024 onwards.

4. Comparative analysis and yield (ROI)

Comparing the average purchase price per m² and the average rental rate:
– Belgravia Heights II (building): sale — 14,679 AED/m² (12 months), rent — 1,255 AED/m² (12 months)
– District (Al Barsha South Fourth): sale — 15,436 AED/m², rent — 1,039 AED/m² (12 months)

Yield:
– Gross ROI for the building: 1,255 / 14,679 ≈ 8.5%
– Gross ROI for the district: 1,039 / 15,436 ≈ 6.7%

Adjustment to net yield (deducting initial costs of around 7%):
– For the building: ROI_net ≈ 8.5% / 1.07 ≈ 7.9%
– For the district: ROI_net ≈ 6.7% / 1.07 ≈ 6.3%

Range of “investment fair value” per m² if the buyer targets a 7–8% yield:
– For Belgravia Heights II: 1,255 / 0.08 = 15,688 AED/m²; 1,255 / 0.07 = 17,929 AED/m²
(The current price is SLIGHTLY below the “fair value window”, which is favourable for investor entry.)
– For the district: 1,039 / 0.08 = 12,988 AED/m²; 1,039 / 0.07 = 14,843 AED/m²
(The district is “more expensive” relative to its rental rates, trading at or slightly above this range.)

5. Takeaways for an investor/seller

Belgravia Heights II demonstrates very high sales liquidity, good rental visibility and is close to the upper ROI boundary among competitors in JVC and Al Barsha South Fourth (achieved gross ROI exceeds the district benchmark by more than 1.5 p.p.).

Entry at the current price “below the window” comfortably fits investment expectations of 7–8% annual yield even after accounting for initial costs. For owners, this is an attractive structure for rental; for investors, it is a rare example of a high-yield product in a liquid segment with a minimal discount to the district.

Risks are minimal; over the next 1–2 years the growth trend is more likely to continue, outpacing the average for JVC and neighbouring districts.