ROI analysis of apartment in Sobha Hartland Waves: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: the Sobha Hartland Waves building is located in the Al Merkadh area, within the SOBHA HARTLAND master development (as per direct verification with DLD).
The DLD database for this building shows 1,044 sales and 965 active rental contracts, which allows for a detailed quantitative analysis for both sales and rentals across the entire complex. The full transaction cycle starts from Q3 2021.

2. Summary of dynamics and demand structure

Transaction dynamics for apartment sales
The number of transactions per quarter for the building remains at a stable level, with peaks in 2021 (up to 157 deals per quarter) and a more even distribution thereafter (30–80 deals per quarter). This indicates high liquidity and strong initial demand, which then stabilized at the operational stage.
Over the past 12 months, a significant number of transactions have been recorded in the building, which allows us to consider current prices as representative.

Average price per square meter dynamics
For Sobha Hartland Waves, the average price per m² in 2021–2024 shows steady growth with moderate quarterly fluctuations:
– In 2021: 20,400 – 21,000 AED/m².
– In 2022: in the range of 20,600 – 21,300 AED/m².
– In 2023: growth to 22,500 AED/m² with occasional pullbacks.
– In 2024: 21,700 – 22,800 AED/m².
The average price per m² for the building over the last 12 months is 21,558 AED.

For comparison, across the SOBHA HARTLAND master development and the Al Merkadh area, prices are slightly lower, acting as a benchmark:
– Average price in the master development over the last 12 months: 20,322 AED/m².
– In Al Merkadh: 22,202 AED/m² (though overall there is dispersion depending on new projects).

3. Rental market analysis

More than 900 lease contracts have been signed in Sobha Hartland Waves since 2023, indicating strong rental demand.
Dynamics of the average annual rental rate per m²:
– Stable and rapid growth — from 790 AED/m² at the beginning of 2023 to 1,580 AED/m² by the end of 2024.
– Over the last 12 months, the average rent in the building amounted to 1,593 AED/m²/year.
– In the SOBHA HARTLAND master development over the same period, the average rent is lower — 1,456 AED/m²/year.
This highlights the premium positioning of this particular building relative to surrounding properties.

4. Yield comparison and “fair price” range (ROI)

Gross yield based on the latest available data (comparison of the building and the master development):
– Average purchase price per m² (last 12 months): ~21,558 AED/m² for the building.
– Average rent per m² (last 12 months): 1,593 AED/m² for the building.
– Gross ROI for the building: 1,593 / 21,558 ≈ 7.4%. Gross ROI for the master development: 1,456 / 20,322 ≈ 7.2%.

Taking into account typical initial costs (an extra 7–8%), the actual net ROI for the building is estimated at 6.8–6.9%. For the master development it is slightly lower.
Calculation of the “investment fair price range” for a 7–8% yield:
– For an 8% yield: fair price = 1,593 / 0.08 = 19,910 AED/m².
– For a 7% yield: fair price = 1,593 / 0.07 = 22,757 AED/m².
In other words, the current purchase price in the building is at the lower boundary of the fair range: based on 2023–2024 rental levels, paying above 22,700 AED/m² is economically unjustified, while offers below 20,000 AED are rarely seen.

5. Conclusions on liquidity and investment outlook

Sobha Hartland Waves is one of the most liquid projects in Al Merkadh, attracting strong demand from both end users and rental investors.
Prices are growing at a moderate pace, and the range of market rents has allowed the project to reach a gross ROI of around 7.4%, with net yield after costs at 6.8–6.9%. This confirms the project’s attractiveness for rental-focused investors, but any further price movement above the “fair range” (23,000+ AED) will push yields below the area’s minimum market level. Sellers and buyers should use the established market benchmark as a reference point in negotiations.

The dynamics of both transactions and rentals, as well as the volumes in the building and the master development, allow us to confidently speak of high liquidity over a 3–5 year horizon, provided current macroeconomic trends persist and the inflow of new competing projects remains moderate.