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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, AG Square is located in Wadi Al Safa 5 and is part of the Dubai Land Residence Complex master project. Filtering was carried out by exact building name match (AG Square), asset type (apartments) and residential use.
The database structure provides a sufficiently detailed and representative sample of apartment sales in AG Square – 419 transactions since 2022. As of the query date, there are no valid rental contracts for this specific building in the open DLD database, so for rental market and yield analysis we use aggregated data for the entire Dubai Land Residence Complex in Wadi Al Safa 5 (this is several tens of thousands of contracts).
2. Transaction and price dynamics – sales
Sales in AG Square started in Q4 2022. The bulk of transactions occurred in 2023. The most relevant analysis is for transactions of type “apartment” with filters by area (30–300 m²) and price per square metre (5,000–35,000 AED/m²) – this removes statistical outliers.
Transaction frequency:
- The peak of active sales fell on Q1–Q2 2023 (119 and 107 transactions).
- Subsequently, sales volumes declined (to 10–60 per quarter in H2 2023), indicating a gradual completion of the main sales phase.
- In 2024, transactions are still taking place, but in much smaller volumes (single digits to tens per quarter).
Average price per m² dynamics for AG Square:
- In Q4 2022 – around 8,900 AED/m².
- Throughout 2023 – in the 9,200–9,300 AED/m² range (stable).
- By Q4 2023 – a slight decrease to ~8,500 AED/m².
- In 2024: quarterly averages fluctuate significantly (from 7,900 to 9,900 AED/m²), due to the small number of transactions and lower stability of the mean.
- Average over the last 12 months: about 9,574 AED/m².
For comparison, across the entire Dubai Land Residence Complex in Wadi Al Safa 5:
- Until 2022, average prices were lower (7,000–8,000 AED/m²).
- During 2023–2024 there has been pronounced growth: from 8,700 AED/m² to above 12,000–14,000 AED/m² in 2024–2025.
- The average price per m² for the area and master project over the last 12 months is about 13,562 AED/m².
Over the past 18–24 months, the area’s market has been catching up with AG Square prices at an outpacing rate.
3. Rental data and yield calculation
No registered rental contracts for AG Square were found in DLD data, so it is not possible to correctly assess the individual yield of an apartment in this particular building.
For the master project/area Dubai Land Residence Complex (Wadi Al Safa 5) – over the last 12 months:
- The average annual rental rate (for all residential apartments) is about 710 AED/m² per year.
- Rental dynamics are clearly positive: since late 2022, growth from ~530 AED/m² to 710 AED/m² over the last 4 quarters.
- The rental market also shows strong, sustained demand: around 43,000 contracts in total, indicating high liquidity in the area.
4. ROI assessment and fair investment price ranges
Gross yield (ROI) at the area level is calculated as the ratio of average annual rent to the average purchase price over the last 12 months:
- ROI for the area (Dubai Land Residence Complex / Wadi Al Safa 5): ~5.2% per annum (710 / 13,562).
- ROI for AG Square CANNOT BE CALCULATED – there is no valid rental data for this building itself.
Taking into account transactional costs (7–8% of the purchase price), net yield at entry is reduced by 7–8%, meaning the actual “investment” yield will be close to 4.8–4.9% net on average for the area.
Fair price range for an investor or seller targeting a 7–8% annual yield (based on area rental rates):
- 710 AED/m² / 0.08 = 8,875 AED/m² (for those targeting 8% per annum).
- 710 AED/m² / 0.07 = 10,143 AED/m² (for those targeting 7% per annum).
- The current price level for AG Square is about 9,570 AED/m², i.e. closer to the lower boundary of the fair “investment” range. It stands out that the wider market is more expensive on average (13,562 AED/m²), which, at the same rental levels, reduces yield.
The actual yield range in the area for investors is 4.8–5.2% per annum (gross/net). To reach a 7–8% ROI, one should expect a price discount/negotiation versus current market levels in the area (or rely on further sustained rental growth).
5. Liquidity and outlook
- AG Square is a recently completed building; the majority of transactions took place in 2023, residual demand still exists but is declining.
- The Dubai Land Residence Complex / Wadi Al Safa 5 area has shown confident growth in both prices and rental rates over the past 2 years, with high liquidity in both segments (sales/rentals).
- In terms of current yield, AG Square looks attractive for a disciplined investor focused on buying below the area’s average price while benefiting from strong market activity.
- A direct ROI calculation for AG Square itself is impossible due to the lack of registered rental data, but the complex-level benchmark is robust: buying at around 9,500–10,000 AED/m² is a reasonable level relative to expected yield and rental dynamics in the area.
The current outlook for the area is neutral-to-positive in terms of investment activity and capital growth. It is worth monitoring rental dynamics – if rents continue to grow faster than prices, yields may reach the desired 6–7% without a discount to market.
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