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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location of the property under analysis:
– Building: Naya at District One (this is the official name in DLD; the marketing name is “Naya 2 at District One”).
– District according to DLD: Al Merkadh.
– Master project: Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City – District -1 Community.
There are 466 registered transactions for this building in DLD, which indicates a high share of new sales. For the analysis, only two-bedroom residential flats were used.
2. Liquidity and transaction activity
The volume of transactions for 2-bedroom apartments in Naya at District One has been particularly high since late 2023:
– Q4 2023: 58 transactions.
– Q1 2024: 40 transactions.
– Q2 2024: 21 transactions.
– Q3 2024: 51 transactions (likely including some declared deals, based on dates available to date).
This level of activity indicates strong demand for the product and confirms the liquidity of the segment at the stage of handover and market entry.
3. Purchase price dynamics per m²
For Naya at District One (2-bedroom, residential flat):
– In Q4 2023 the average transaction price per m² was about 23,310 AED.
– In Q1 2024 — 22,842 AED/m².
– Q2 2024 — 23,743 AED/m².
– Q3 2024 — 24,426 AED/m².
Over the last four quarters there has been a steady increase in prices per m² (growth of 5–7%).
Within the District One master project, for comparable apartments, the dynamics over the last four quarters were:
– Q4 2023 — 22,184 AED/m².
– Q1 2024 — 19,264 AED/m².
– Q2 2024 — 20,330 AED/m².
– Q3 2024 — 23,745 AED/m².
The average current price per m² in Naya at District One over the last 12 months for 2-bedroom units was 19,801 AED/m², while across the entire master project it was 22,251 AED/m².
4. Rental rate dynamics and market rent
For this particular building or the master project, DLD has not recorded a single valid rental contract for apartments of this category (2 bed rooms), which is typical for new buildings at the handover/initial occupancy stage.
At the Al Merkadh district level there is an extensive history of rental contracts (more than 25,000 valid contracts since the system started operating):
– Over the last 12 months the average rental rate for all apartments in the district was 1,540 AED/m² per year.
– Rental dynamics in the district: in 2020 rates were 600–800 AED/m²; by 2022 they had already reached 930–1,120 AED/m²; from 2023 to 2024 growth continued, reaching 1,150–1,550 AED/m² by the end of 2024.
– Over the last four quarters the rental rate in the district increased from 1,356 to 1,551 AED/m².
These figures reflect the full spectrum of apartment rental contracts in Al Merkadh, including both completed communities and new projects.
5. Price and yield comparison
— Market purchase price (12‑month average):
– for the building: 19,801 AED/m² (2BR),
– for the master project: 22,251 AED/m² (2BR).
— Market rent (12 months, district level only):
– 1,540 AED/m²/year.
— Gross yield (ROI):
– For the building, an estimate is not possible, as there is no data on actual rentals.
– For the district: gross ROI is approximately 7.0% (1,540 / 22,251).
– Taking into account acquisition costs (7–8%), the effective net yield (net ROI) is 6.5–6.7%.
— Assessment of the “fair price range” for investors targeting a 7–8% annual yield:
– District range: from 19,250 to 22,000 AED/m².
– The average market price per apartment in the building is close to the lower boundary of this range; at the district level it is slightly above the mid-point. This characterises the project as attractive for investors, provided that the actual rental rate opens at around 1,500–1,600 AED/m².
6. Key findings
— Naya at District One is a liquid new project with a high transaction frequency and notable price growth over the past 18 months.
— There is no data on actual rentals in the building (or in the master project), which is typical for new buildings at the occupancy stage.
— Using the average market rental rate for the district (1,540 AED/m²) as a benchmark is the most realistic approach.
— Investment potential: market-wide ROI is close to 7% gross per annum; this is a standard level for fast-developing upper‑mid class districts.
— If the actual rental rate in the building turns out to be above 1,600 AED/m², the yield will exceed the market benchmark. If it is lower, a discount on entry in subsequent resales is possible.
7. Limitations of the analysis
— All yield and rental analytics are based solely on district-level statistics, since there are no valid rental contracts in DLD for the building or the master project. Any figures for rent and ROI for the building itself will be inapplicable until the first contracts for actual apartment rentals appear.
— For a long-term investment strategy, it is reasonable to target a purchase price of around 20,000–22,000 AED/m², with an expected yield of 6.5–7% per annum, including all costs.
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