1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location of the Stella Maris building according to DLD:
– Area: Marsa Dubai
– Master project: Dubai Marina
Breakdown by type: the analysis below is based on 1-bedroom apartments (1BR), as these are the transactions requested and successfully identified in the Stella Maris transaction database. For rentals, it is not possible to detail specifically for this building and unit type due to the absence of contracts, so rental and yield analysis is carried out at the Marsa Dubai area level.
2. Volume and dynamics of transactions in Stella Maris (1BR)
Excellent liquidity has been recorded for 1-bedroom apartments — 205 transactions in DLD. Number of transactions from 2021 to 2024:
– 2021: 78 transactions
– 2022: 63 transactions
– 2023: 35 transactions
– 2024: 16 transactions (to date), with a small number in future periods, which are not included in the analysis.
There is strong market activity at the start of the project, a typical phase for bringing a new building to market. The volume gradually declines as the bulk of units are sold in the early years after completion.
3. Dynamics of average price per sq.m (purchase prices) — Stella Maris vs area
For 1-bedroom apartments in Stella Maris, the dynamics of the average price per sq.m (quarterly averages) for 2021–2024 are as follows:
– 2021, Q2: around 15,700 AED/sq.m. By the end of 2021 — already about 18,450 AED/sq.m.
– 2022: continued growth — from 20,200 AED/sq.m (Q1) to 27,800 AED/sq.m (Q4).
– 2023: price peak — around 28,600 AED/sq.m in Q1–Q2, then a slight correction (25,600 in Q4).
– 2024: renewed price growth — Q1, Q2, Q3: about 29,000–31,000 AED/sq.m, followed by volatility.
– Average achieved price over the last 12 months for the building: 29,200 AED/sq.m.
For comparison, across the entire Marsa Dubai area (apartments, residential, flats):
– 2021: 13,600–19,800 AED/sq.m (clear growth throughout the year).
– 2022: range of 18,700–22,300 AED/sq.m.
– 2023: growth up to 27,500 AED/sq.m, then a correction to 22,800–24,800 AED/sq.m.
– 2024: the level stabilises in the 22,000–23,500 AED/sq.m range.
– Average over the last 12 months: 24,450 AED/sq.m.
Conclusion: Stella Maris significantly outperforms the area in terms of average price per sq.m — 20–25% higher over the last 12 months. This reflects the project’s positioning as a premium and relatively new product.
4. Dynamics of rental rates (Marsa Dubai area)
There are no confirmed rental contracts for Stella Maris in DLD (at the building level or at the Dubai Marina master-project level for 1BR apartments there is no relevant data, and at the area level the dataset is very large). The analysis is therefore carried out for residential apartments in the Marsa Dubai area.
Quarterly dynamics of the average rental rate per sq.m:
– 2021: 725–786 AED/sq.m/year, with a sharp spike in Q4 (“outlier” — over 1,750 AED/sq.m, atypical and likely a data error).
– 2022: further growth — from 870 to 1,008 AED/sq.m.
– 2023: substantial increase — Q1–Q4: 1,186–1,260 AED/sq.m (there are some fluctuations, but the overall upward trend is clear).
– 2024 (current year): stable levels — 1,173–1,282 AED/sq.m.
– Average over the last 12 months: 1,320 AED/sq.m.
The rental market in Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina) has shown a strong increase in yields over the past 2–3 years, and tenant demand remains high in the current year.
5. Comparison of yields and “fair value”
Current average purchase price level (last 12 months):
– Stella Maris (1BR): 29,200 AED/sq.m
– Marsa Dubai (apartments): 24,450 AED/sq.m
Aggregated rental rate (area): 1,320 AED/sq.m/year
Calculation of gross investment yield, using area indicators as a benchmark:
– ROI (area, Marsa Dubai): 1,320 / 24,450 ≈ 5.4% per annum (excluding expenses)
– ROI for the building cannot be calculated — there is no rental data specifically for Stella Maris; it is acceptable to use the area level as a proxy for new buildings in a similar segment.
Adjustment for transaction costs (7–8% at entry):
– Net ROI (area): 5.4% / 1.07 ≈ 5.0% per annum
“Fair investment price” range to target a 7–8% yield (based on area rent_psm):
– 1,320 / 0.08 = 16,500 AED/sq.m — 1,320 / 0.07 = 18,860 AED/sq.m
Comparing this with current prices (24,450 AED/sq.m for the area, 29,200 AED/sq.m for Stella Maris), it becomes clear that to target a 7–8% annual yield, an investor would either need to enter at a significantly lower price (which is unlikely for new premium assets), or accept a lower yield — which is exactly what happens in practice in the most liquid new projects in Dubai Marina.
6. Market, outlook and liquidity
In terms of transaction volume, long-term price dynamics and the volume of rental contracts, Marsa Dubai/Dubai Marina is one of the most liquid and dynamic markets in Dubai. A large number of units in Stella Maris have been sold since launch, confirming strong demand for new/premium stock.
Price growth in Stella Maris has outpaced the area — the gap in average prices reached 20–25% over the last 12 months. Rental rates in the area have almost doubled over three years, but despite this, investment yields have fallen significantly due to the sharp increase in purchase prices (gross 5.4%, net around 5% taking entry costs into account).
The fair investment range for the area is now significantly below market prices, which is typical for premium assets in a highly liquid segment.
7. Key takeaways
– Liquidity in Stella Maris and in the wider area is high: the market is actively traded, with visible transaction volumes and clear price dynamics.
– Purchase prices in the building are consistently higher than in the area, with a premium of up to 20–25%.
– Yields at current market prices are significantly below the “fair investment” level of 7–8% — at current area prices they are around 5%, and for Stella Maris even lower (without confirmed rental contracts for the building, precise calculation is not possible).
– The 3–5 year outlook for the area appears solid; however, further outperformance in yields is unlikely unless rental demand catches up with the rapid growth in purchase prices.
– For a short-term investor, a bet on quick capital gains may be risky, while for a long-term investor, yields will become more balanced only if the rental market continues to grow at a faster pace.
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