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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD data, the Sobha Creek Vistas Grande building is located in the Al Merkadh area and is part of the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. For this analysis, the sample was built based on the building name (exact match by filter) and the “1 bedroom” apartment type. All further comparisons are based on data for this specific area and the specified residential complex.
2. Sample structure and transaction activity
Over the period 2022–2024, 313 sale transactions were recorded for 1-bedroom apartments in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande, which indicates strong demand both at the building level and in the Al Merkadh area as a whole (the total number of transactions in the area is significantly higher).
Dynamics of primary and secondary sales by year/quarter for the building:
— The highest activity occurred in 2023 (179 transactions). The number of closed deals in 2024 amounted to 33, which reflects a certain slowdown, likely due to the completion of the main handover phase of the complex.
— For the current assessment of the building’s liquidity, the project can be considered highly liquid at least from the moment it entered the market.
3. Price per square meter dynamics (building vs area)
For comparison, we used the average price per m² for the building and for the Al Merkadh area over the last 2 years (cumulative values are local, extreme outliers are filtered out: apartment size in the analysis is from 30 to 120 m²).
– For Sobha Creek Vistas Grande 1BR:
— The average price per m² over the last 12 months was 19,720 AED.
— Quarterly range for 2023–2024: from 18,900 to 20,800 AED/m², which reflects a relatively stable trend after the project reached its plateau.
– For the Al Merkadh area (1-bedroom):
— Average price per m² over the last 12 months: 20,350 AED.
— Quarterly range for 2023–2024: on average from 18,500 to 21,400 AED/m².
— Thus, prices in the building over the last 12 months are in line with the area average, with a slight lag (3% below the area average at the time of measurement).
4. Rent and yield (ROI)
According to DLD data, there are no recorded rental contracts for 1-bedroom apartments in Creek Vistas Grande itself, nor in the SOBHA HARTLAND master project with similar filters. The only valid benchmark is the average rent in the Al Merkadh area for residential apartments overall (large number of contracts: ~27,000 in the sample).
– For the Al Merkadh area (all flats/Residential):
— Average annual rental rate per 1 m² over the last 12 months: 1,550 AED/m².
— Over the last 2–3 years, rental dynamics have been positive: from ~1,150 AED/m² to ~1,550 AED/m², but growth rates have been slowing in recent quarters.
Fact: For Creek Vistas Grande and the SOBHA HARTLAND master project, there are no confirmed rental contracts with a rate-per-m² calculation, therefore yield (ROI) can only be estimated at the Al Merkadh area level as a district benchmark.
5. Current ROI and fair price range
— For Creek Vistas Grande it is not possible to correctly calculate ROI due to the absence of rental data (DLD has no active rental contracts for the building/project).
— At the area level (Al Merkadh):
— Average ROI_brutto (area) = 1,550 / 20,350 ≈ 7.6% per annum.
— Adjustment for initial transactional costs (around 7%): ROI_net ≈ 7.1% per annum.
Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield in the area:
— Minimum investment-fair price: 1,550 / 0.08 ≈ 19,400 AED/m².
— Upper bound: 1,550 / 0.07 ≈ 22,140 AED/m².
— The current average price for the building (19,720) and the area (20,350) falls within this range; an investor can expect a yield slightly above 7% per annum if the current rental trend is maintained.
6. Liquidity and investment outlook
— Liquidity at Creek Vistas Grande has been among the highest in the area at launch and immediately post-handover, as confirmed by the large number of transactions.
— Secondary market prices have stabilized close to the area averages, without a clear premium or discount.
— Rental rates in the area have grown significantly over the last 2 years, supporting the attractiveness for mid-high segment investors. However, the absence of valid DLD rental contracts specifically for the building and even for the master project limits the accuracy of yield forecasts.
— For an investor, the robustness of the deal depends on their readiness to rely on area-level yields and accept the risk that the micro-environment of Creek Vistas Grande in terms of rent may differ either upwards or downwards.
7. Final conclusions
— Prices in the building are at or slightly below the area average; the potential for aggressive growth is limited, but a decline is not currently in sight.
— Expected ROI at the level of 7–7.6%, which is typical for new projects in SOBHA HARTLAND, is higher than most “concrete” long-term investments, assuming rental flows normalize.
— For an investor, it is reasonable to target a price of 19,500–20,000 AED/m² to achieve a yield close to 7–8% per annum (with an adjustment for the absence of rental contracts for the building).
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