ROI analysis of apartment in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD data, the Sobha Creek Vistas Grande building is located in the Al Merkadh area, master project SOBHA HARTLAND. All conclusions regarding the area and master project are based ONLY on actual transactions in this development.

Using the filter “1 bedroom, residential use, apartment”, 313 sales in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande were recorded from August 2022 to June 2024. For 1BR rentals over the last 12 months there are no contracts in this building or in the master project; therefore, the analysis is extended to the Al Merkadh area level.

2. Sales analysis in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande (1BR)

Liquidity: active sales occurred in batches, with a peak in Q1 2023 (110 1BR transactions), followed by demand stabilisation (17–30 deals per quarter as of the request date).

The average price per m² for 1BR units over the last 12 months was 19,613 AED (subject to filters for valid sizes and prices).

Average price per m² dynamics in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande (1BR):
– Quarterly from late 2022 to the current period: range of 19,100–20,850 AED per m², without pronounced volatility.
– Versus Al Merkadh area prices (see below), the building trades slightly below the area average (by about 5–10%).

3. Comparison with the Al Merkadh area

Average price per m² for 1BR apartments in Al Merkadh over the last 12 months: 20,769 AED (sample of ~1,600 transactions).
Area dynamics: a smooth increase in average prices from 15,000–17,000 AED per m² in 2020–2022 to 21,000+ AED in the latest quarters of 2024.

4. Rental market analysis

For Sobha Creek Vistas Grande and the SOBHA HARTLAND master project there are no registered 1BR rental contracts over the last 12 months — not a single valid case in the DLD database.

At the Al Merkadh area level, for all apartments (not only 1BR), the average rental rate over the last 12 months was 1,524 AED/m²/year (sample: 10,000+ contracts).
Rental dynamics in the area show strong growth: from 850–900 AED/m²/year in 2021–2022 to 1,500+ in 2024.

5. ROI and fair price calculation

ROI and rental yield for 1BR units in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande cannot be calculated directly due to the absence of rental contracts.
For Al Merkadh (as a benchmark for 1BR apartments):
– Gross yield in the area: 1,524 / 20,769 ≈ 7.3% per annum (based on headline prices over the last 12 months).
– Net yield (taking into account initial costs of ≈ 7–8% of the transaction price): 6.8–6.9% per annum.
– Fair price range to achieve a 7–8% annual return in line with the area market: 1,524 ÷ 0.08 = 19,050 AED/m² (8% yield) and 1,524 ÷ 0.07 = 21,770 AED/m² (7% yield).

The current average market price for 1BR units in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande (19,613 AED/m²) lies within the “investment-fair” price range for 7–8% annual yield expectations for the area — no discount or premium needs to be applied.

6. Conclusions and outlook

– Liquidity in the building was very high at the initial stages (the project was sold in large batches, which is typical for new Sobha developments). After entering the secondary market, transaction volumes decreased, but liquidity remained above the area average.
– Prices for 1BR units in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande are closer to the lower end of the Al Merkadh price range, making it attractive for investors targeting a market ROI of 7–8%.
– Rental rate growth in the area is significant, but there is still no direct confirmation of this for this particular building (the absence of primary rental contracts is specifically noted).
– Upside potential is constrained by price “stabilisation” after the initial growth phase; further movement is more likely to follow the general market dynamics of the area.