ROI analysis of apartment in Sobha Creek Vistas Grande: DLD data and real deals

1. Area definition and data structure

Actual location: Sobha Creek Vistas Grande — the project is built in the Al Merkadh area, within the SOBHA HARTLAND master development (according to DLD_transactions data for the Sobha Creek Vistas Grande building).

Database records: 694 sale transactions for the building over the entire period, as well as active rental deals (239 recorded contracts in DLD_rent_contracts; 210 over the last 12 months). The rental and sales dataset is sufficiently large for day-to-day analysis, allowing conclusions on current liquidity, price trends and yields both for the building and the wider area.

2. Sales analysis (DLD_transactions)

Transaction frequency and dynamics by year:

The building was handed over relatively recently (sales peak in 2023–2025: 362 deals in 2023, 75 in 2024, 231 in 2025; there are also deferred transactions scheduled for 2026).
This is a large-scale project, with transactions evenly distributed across quarters.

Average price per m² in the building over the last 3 years:

Since 2022, the average price per m² in the building has fluctuated in the 19,300–20,300 AED/m² range. No significant growth or decline is observed.
Over the last 12 months, the average purchase price was 19,780 AED/m² (225 transactions).
Over the last quarter, the average price is also close to this level (quarterly breakdown is shown in the chart block).

For comparison, in the Al Merkadh area:

Over the last 12 months: the average price per m² was 20,430 AED/m² (4,141 transactions).
From 2020 to 2024, average prices in the area increased from 14,900–17,500 AED/m² to 20,000–21,000 AED/m².
Over the last 4 quarters, area-wide price dynamics have caught up with and even exceeded the level of Sobha Creek Vistas Grande.

Thus, as of today Sobha Creek Vistas Grande is priced slightly below the average level for Al Merkadh (a difference of around 3%).

Distribution of transactions by unit size:

The analysis includes apartments of standard sizes in the 25–300 m² range (outliers excluded).

3. Rental analysis (DLD_rent_contracts)

There are no registered studio (0BR) rentals in this building — not a single confirmed contract. All calculations below refer to average figures for the building across all apartment types (the core market segment), as well as to the wider area.

Overall for Sobha Creek Vistas Grande:

Over the last 12 months, 210 valid rental contracts were concluded (across all apartment formats).
The average annual rental rate per m² is 1,435 AED/m².
The rental segment is stable, without sharp jumps; quarterly levels are in the 1,400–1,460 AED/m² range (for 2025 by quarter).

For the entire Al Merkadh area:

Over the last 12 months: the average rental rate is 1,524 AED/m² (a large volume — more than 10,000 contracts).
In terms of dynamics: over 3 years the area has moved from 1,100–1,250 AED/m² to the current 1,500+ AED/m².

Accordingly, the rental flow for the building is also slightly below the area level at present (by roughly -6%).

4. Yield and fair price benchmarks

ROI based on recorded DLD data:

For the building: ROI_brutto ≈ 1,435 / 19,780 ≈ 7.3% per annum.
For the area: ROI_brutto ≈ 1,524 / 20,430 ≈ 7.5% per annum.

Adjusting for entry costs (7%): ROI_net for the building is ≈ 6.8%. For the area it is slightly higher (around 7%).

Range of investment-fair prices for a target yield of 7%–8%:

For the building: the fair price range per m² for an investor is from 17,940 to 20,494 AED/m².
The current actual average price is 19,780 AED/m².
Conclusion: current transactions are taking place within a transparent investment range for a 7%–8% yield target. The market does not require significant discounts.

5. Liquidity and outlook

The liquidity of both the asset and the area is very high: a large pool of sales in the building (more than 220 deals per year), a high frequency of current rental contracts (210 contracts per year), and a broad transaction volume in the area (4,100 purchases and 10,000 rentals per year). This indicates stable demand and no noticeable slumps even with a large volume of units coming to market.

Price and rental dynamics are characterised by restrained growth over the long term (the area and the building have increased by 10–30% over 3 years), while fluctuations over the last 12–18 months have been strictly moderate.

Comparison with the area: the building sells at a small discount to the area and rents slightly below the Al Merkadh market, but the gap is minimal — the project is typical for this location.

ROI: based on current DLD levels, an investor can expect a realistic gross yield of around 7–7.5% per annum and a net yield after costs of about 6.7–7%, which corresponds to the “market norm” for new mass-market buildings in Dubai. To materially increase yield, a discount to the purchase price is required.

Investor summary: Sobha Creek Vistas Grande currently offers high market liquidity and market-level yields, and does not require substantial discounts to achieve a 7–8% annual return target. The project is suitable for long-term capital preservation and exposure to a stable rental market. There is no evidence of outperformance — the outlook is moderately positive, with a bias towards stabilisation and gradual growth in line with the area.