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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, the building SAMANA MYKONOS SIGNATURE is located in Al Barshaa South Third and belongs to the Arjan master project. For this analysis, the category of two-bedroom apartments has been selected.
The DLD database records 313 sale transactions for this building. There is no data on lease contracts specifically for this building, the Arjan master project, or even for 2-bedroom apartments in the area, which is typical for new or off-plan projects. Rental analysis is only possible at the level of the entire residential stock of Al Barshaa South Third.
2. Sales and price dynamics
Over the past two years, regular transactions have been recorded for SAMANA MYKONOS SIGNATURE (2BR):
– The highest spike in activity was 21 transactions in Q3 2023. Later the pace declined noticeably: 6 transactions in Q1 2024, and only one transaction in both Q2 and Q4 2024.
– Average price per square metre in the building moved from 10,650 AED/m² (Q2 2023) to a peak of 13,795 AED/m² (Q2 2024), then decreased to 11,236 AED/m² (Q4 2024). Over the last 12 months, the average level stands at 10,112 AED/m², which is below the peak and indicates a certain volatility and possible overpricing at the launch stage.
– For comparison: in Al Barshaa South Third (2BR) the trend is smoother. The average level in the area over the last 12 months is 12,626 AED/m², meaning the building is trading at a 20% discount to the average market level in the area for comparable layouts.
3. Rental rate dynamics
There is currently no data in the DLD database on actual rentals in SAMANA MYKONOS SIGNATURE or in the Arjan master project, which is typical for new or under-construction developments. In Al Barshaa South Third, the average annual residential rental rate over the last 12 months is 919 AED/m².
Over the past two years, the area has seen a confident increase in rental rates: from 705 AED/m² (Q2 2023) to 834 AED/m² (Q3 2024) and higher. This points to stable rental demand across the area as a whole.
4. Price level comparison and yield calculation
The average sale price for 2BR units in SAMANA MYKONOS SIGNATURE over the last 12 months is 10,112 AED/m², which is significantly below the area’s comparable segment (12,626 AED/m²). The average market rent in the area (919 AED/m²) and the structure of new buildings suggest that potential return on investment (ROI) will be as follows:
– For the area (actual rates): expected gross yield (brutto) at about 7.3% per annum (calculated as 919 / 12,626).
– For the building itself (if we assume the area rental rate): potentially up to 9.1% (919 / 10,112), however this will only be valid once actual rental transactions appear for the building (higher risk!).
Taking into account upfront costs (taxes, commissions, registration and other expenses — approximately 7% of the purchase price), net yield will be lower, around 6.8% for the building and 6.8% for the area.
5. Fair investment price range
For an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield at the current area rental level (919 AED/m²), the fair purchase price range is 11,487–13,128 AED/m². Actual transactions in the building are occurring at a discount to this range, which makes SAMANA MYKONOS SIGNATURE potentially attractive in terms of yield, provided that the rental level matches that of the surrounding area.
6. Liquidity and outlook
Liquidity is high at the launch stage, but the frequency of transactions declines as the project becomes absorbed by the market. Al Barshaa South Third has established stable demand both in the primary market and in rentals, with active rental growth since 2022. Key risks include the absence of actual rental contracts for the building (synthetic yield), as well as potential competition from new projects in the area.
Conclusion: SAMANA MYKONOS SIGNATURE is currently selling below the average market level for comparable apartments in the area. If real rental demand is confirmed, yields may exceed the area average (even above 9% brutto), but such calculations will only be reliable once the first rental transactions in the building appear. Future performance will depend on occupancy, competition in the area, and the overall state of the rental market.
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