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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the Samana Hills building is located in Al Barshaa South Third, within the Arjan master development. The analysis uses only actual sales transactions and lease contracts from this building and the corresponding area. In the DLD database, the name Samana Hills accounts for 321 sale transactions (all apartment types) and 504 active lease contracts for the project.
2. Turnover and liquidity
Over the past 4 years, Samana Hills has shown stable transaction activity for two‑bedroom apartments (2BR): the total number of such deals in the DLD database exceeds 15, with a spread across quarters, most of which took place between 2020 and 2023. The volume of lease contracts in the building as a whole is also high, indicating solid liquidity both for purchase and for rent.
3. Price and rental dynamics
Sales (2BR):
– The average price per square meter for Samana Hills 2BR units fluctuated from approximately AED 8,700 to AED 10,700/m² in 2020–2023. Quarterly dynamics show moderate volatility — no abnormal spikes, but with periodic increases and pullbacks.
– For the last 12 months, there have not been enough 2BR sales in Samana Hills to calculate a reliable average price (therefore we rely on the benchmark of the wider area and master project).
– In the area (Arjan / Al Barshaa South Third), the average price per m² for 2BR units over the last 12 months was about AED 12,680/m²; if we take all transactions in the area (including all apartment types), the figure is AED 15,096/m².
Rent:
– In Samana Hills, the average annual rental rate per m² over the last 12 months across all apartment types reached AED 1,326/m². This is a high level for the mass‑market segment in Arjan.
– For the entire Arjan / Al Barshaa South Third area, the average rental rate per m² for the same period is AED 975/m².
– Quarterly rental dynamics in the building show rapid growth: from AED 848/m² (2022) to more than AED 1,300/m² (2024).
4. Comparison of the building and the area
– In terms of rent, Samana Hills is currently significantly (by roughly 36%) ahead of the area average. This may indicate the attractiveness of the residential complex itself, its relatively new condition, and elevated rental demand within the building.
– For recent primary sales, the sample of transactions in the building over the last 12 months is insufficient to calculate an average price for specific deals; however, the area benchmark suggests a price level of AED 12,680–15,100/m².
– Over the past 2 years, rental rates in Samana Hills have been growing faster than purchase prices, which pushes investment yields higher.
5. ROI and range of “fair value” for investment
– For the building:
– The gross ROI_brutto is approximately 10.5% per annum (1,326 / 12,680) — calculated based on the average rental rate in the building and the average price per m² in the area for 2BR units.
– If we apply the broader area benchmark price (AED 15,096/m²), the gross ROI_brutto decreases to 8.8% per annum.
– After accounting for all acquisition costs (DLD fee, brokerage commission, other expenses — totaling up to 7–8% of the purchase price), the “net” ROI_net for the area is around 8.1% per annum, and for the building (relative to the area price for 2BR) about 9.8%.
– The “fair investment range” of prices for a buyer targeting a 7–8% annual yield in Samana Hills corresponds to AED 16,600–18,900 of rental income per apartment, or, in terms of rates per m², to a purchase range of AED 16,600–18,900 / 0.08–0.07 = AED 20,750–23,700/m², which is significantly above current market prices. This indicates that the actual market is currently offering a yield on this product above the 7–8% target, and current prices are justified from an investment perspective.
6. Conclusions and outlook
– Samana Hills shows steady demand for two‑bedroom apartments, with a solid volume of lease contracts and sale transactions.
– Investment returns for new buyers remain above the Dubai market average (8.8–10.5% gross per annum), mainly due to high rental levels. The building significantly outperforms the area in terms of yield, underscoring its strong positioning among prospective tenants.
– Price dynamics are moderately positive, but rental growth clearly outpaces the growth of offer/transaction prices, creating additional investment upside.
– For investors ready to enter the Samana Hills market now, conditions remain favorable: the rental premium of the building versus the area is substantial, and the yield buffer allows for some decline in rental rates or a moderate increase in purchase prices.
7. Note on data reliability
– All yield and average price figures are based solely on transactions and leases recorded in DLD. Where data on individual 2BR transactions over the last year was insufficient, the area benchmark was used.
– The price ranges are derived from balancing a 7–8% annual yield target with average rental rates according to DLD and are not intended to constitute a formal valuation.
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