ROI analysis of apartment in Samana Barari Lagoons: DLD data and real deals — 20.12.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD data, Samana Barari Lagoons is located in Wadi Al Safa 3 and belongs to the Majan master project. The DLD database records 579 sale transactions for this building. In the rental section there are no contracts yet for this specific building or project, however there is a very large number of contracts for the Majan master project and the Wadi Al Safa 3 area (13,851 and 18,576 respectively), which indicates high liquidity and popularity of the location.

2. Liquidity and demand characteristics

The sales volume in the building is very high: over the last five quarters (from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025) more than 579 transactions have been recorded. Throughout 2025, quarterly sales grow to 236 deals in Q1 and remain at an elevated level, which points to strong interest in the new development and an advanced stage of sales. The rental volume in the Majan master project similarly confirms strong demand and a dense residential stock — over the latest sample there are more than 13,000 contracts.

3. Residential price dynamics

The average sale price per square metre in Samana Barari Lagoons (with a filter applied to studios and reasonable unit sizes) over the last 12 months is about 20,257 AED/m² (for studios, 0BR), with a range from approximately 15,742 to 23,642 AED/m². For all apartment types, the average price in the building is slightly lower — 18,567 AED/m² over the last 12 months.

Across Wadi Al Safa 3 as a whole, the average price per square metre is 16,197 AED/m². Thus, Samana Barari Lagoons is selling at a clear premium to the district’s average market level — from 13% (for the building overall) to more than 25% (for studios). This is typical for new, ambitious projects with enhanced specifications.

Price dynamics per m² show a positive trend: from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, prices in the building remain in the range of 17,043–19,526 AED/m² (by quarter), which is above the district average (around 16,415 AED/m² over the same periods).

4. Current rental level and yield analysis

For Samana Barari Lagoons itself and the specific project, rental contracts have not yet been recorded in DLD (which is typical for new buildings — they are not yet handed over or are only just being commissioned). However, for the Majan master project over the last 12 months, the average DLD-confirmed rental rate is 798 AED/m² per year (we always calculate for residential apartments, excluding abnormally small sizes and prices).

5. Yield (ROI) assessment and “fair price range”

Taking the market price level in Samana Barari Lagoons (around 18,567 AED/m² for all apartments over the last 12 months) and the average rental rate for the master project (798 AED/m² per year), the calculated gross ROI (before entry costs) for an investor is about 4.3% per annum. This is below the classic target range for Dubai (7–8%) and reflects the premium pricing of new developments, which are largely aimed at end users rather than rental investors.

Taking into account typical transaction costs (7–8% on entry), the actual net yield for an investor will decrease by another 6–7%, meaning net ROI will be in the range of 4–4.2% per annum.

From the perspective of an “investment fair price” (with a target yield of 7–8%), the reasonable purchase range, based on actual rental rates in Majan, is 9,975–11,400 AED/m², which is significantly below the current market level for Samana Barari Lagoons. This confirms that a significant share of demand in this project is likely to come from end users and buyers focused on own residence or long-term capital growth rather than classic rental payback.

6. Conclusions and outlook

Samana Barari Lagoons is an extremely liquid asset at an active sales stage, with a high premium to average district prices due to the project’s newness and attractive specifications. In the coming years, an active rental track record for the building is expected to form: potential investors should understand that actual yield will strongly depend on rental market adjustment as the first residents move in and on a possible reduction of the price premium on the secondary market.

Comparison with the wider area shows that the asset is significantly more expensive than the average property in Wadi Al Safa 3, while the current average rental rate in Majan delivers a yield almost twice below the “target” level for a classic rental investor. Entry into this project is therefore reasonable either for buyers confident in long-term capital appreciation, or as a product for own residence, but not as a tool for high-yield passive rental investment.