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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the building RA1N Residence is registered in the Al Barsha South Fourth area, master project Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC).
Data volume: The DLD system records 154 sales for RA1N Residence. There are no registered rental contracts for this building yet, which is typical for new or off-plan projects, but there is a very large sample for the entire Al Barsha South Fourth area within Jumeirah Village Circle.
2. Liquidity and transaction frequency
Transactions in RA1N Residence started in Q3 2023, with the main volume of registrations in Q4 2023 and onwards — 29–42 deals per quarter up to the current date. This confirms high liquidity at the active sales stage. Deals are evenly distributed over time, with no signs of weakening demand.
3. Price dynamics and price level per square meter
For the building (RA1N Residence):
– The average price per m² over the last 12 months was 13,996 AED, which reflects the actual entry level for an investor according to DLD.
– Since Q3 2023, fluctuations in the average price for the building have remained within 10,000–13,000 AED per m², with a slight increase to 14,000–14,500 AED per m² by mid-2024 and subsequent stabilization around these levels.
For the area (Al Barsha South Fourth, JVC):
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price in the area was 15,459 AED per m², meaning the building is currently trading at ~10% below the area’s average market level.
– In terms of dynamics, the area has seen a significant price increase: in 2020–2022 prices fluctuated within 9,500–12,000 AED per m², with a sharp move to 15,000+ AED in 2023–2025.
4. Rental market — level and dynamics
For RA1N Residence there are no active rental contracts in the DLD database at the time of analysis, so the estimate of the average rental rate is only possible based on Al Barsha South Fourth (JVC), where the data is highly representative: more than 120,000 contracts.
Over the last 12 months:
– The average annual rent in the area was 1,025 AED per m².
– The dynamics over the last 3–4 years show confident growth: since 2022 the average rate has increased from 650–700 AED per m² to the current 1,025 AED (+50% over 2 years). Growth is ongoing, and the quarterly averages in 2024 are consistently above 950–1,000 AED per m².
5. ROI (return) and fair price range
For RA1N Residence, the yield calculation can only be based on the building’s prices and the area’s rental rates:
– Gross yield (ROI) based on data for the last 12 months:
ROI_brutto_home = 1,025 / 13,996 ≈ 7.3%
ROI_brutto_area = 1,025 / 15,459 ≈ 6.6%
– Net yield (including entry costs of ≈7%):
ROI_net_home ≈ 6.8%
ROI_net_area ≈ 6.2%
– Fair price range for a 7–8% annual yield (benchmark for an investor in the area):
For a target yield of 7–8%, the “investment fair” price is 12,800–14,650 AED per m².
The actual price of RA1N Residence (≈14,000 AED/m²) currently fits within these constraints, sitting at the upper boundary of the desired range and slightly below the area average.
6. Key takeaways for an investor / seller
– The RA1N Residence project demonstrates high liquidity — the database shows a significant number of transactions, predominantly in the primary market.
– The entry price is still slightly below the area average, which may be attractive for an investor expecting price growth after handover and activation of the secondary market.
– The price and rental dynamics in the area are positive: JVC and the Al Barsha South Fourth segment are steadily growing in both key parameters (price per m² and rental rate).
– The expected entry yield at the current price is 7.3% gross and around 6.8% net after costs. This level is in line with the average target for buy-to-let in Dubai.
– For a property at the start of operation, it makes sense to use the area rental benchmark until its own DLD data appears (but going forward, strong occupancy can be expected due to the active new-build segment in the area).
7. Growth potential and risks
– Over the next 3–5 years, growth potential remains, but high competition among new developments in JVC requires maintaining a competitive rental rate. Quality property management and a focus on rapid leasing will be key factors.
– Entry at the current price is close to the fair value for buy-to-let; for a long-term investor there is potential for capital appreciation against the backdrop of the area’s overall growth.
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