ROI analysis of apartment in Oxford Gardens: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the Oxford Gardens building belongs to the Al Barshaa South Third area and the Arjan master project.
Under the “1 bedroom” filter for this building, DLD shows 127 transactions, which is a sufficient volume for sales statistics at both building and unit (1BR) level.

Rent: In the DLD table there are no registered 1BR leases, nor any leases at all for this building within Oxford Gardens and the Arjan master project. Even at the area level (Al Barshaa South Third) the 1BR sample is empty. For a meaningful rental analysis, we have to move up to the level of the entire area and all residential apartments (without breakdown by unit type).

2. Sales price dynamics and levels

For Oxford Gardens 1BR units there is a noticeable increase in the average price per m²:
– In Q4 2023 the average level was 11,700–11,800 AED/m².
– Throughout 2024 the trend has been steadily upward: 11,800–13,400 AED/m² in Q1–Q3 2024.
– Q4 2024: a significant jump to 15,600 AED/m².
– Over the last year as a whole, the average level was 15,656 AED/m² for 1BR.

For comparison, across the area and the Arjan master project, the average price per m² for 1BR over the last 12 months was 14,108 AED/m². The minimum gap in favor of Oxford Gardens at the current price is about +11% relative to the area average.

Annual and quarterly dynamics for the area/Arjan as a whole are also upward. At the beginning of 2023 deals were closing at 10,000–12,500 AED/m², and by mid‑2024 already at 12,500–13,800 AED/m².

3. Rentals in the area

Rental data are available only at the level of the entire Al Barshaa South Third area (for the whole residential stock, not exclusively Arjan and not strictly 1BR apartments). Over the last 12 months the average effective rent in the area was 950 AED/m²/year. All quarters of 2024 show rapid growth: from 800 to almost 950 AED/m²/year on average by the current period.

4. Yield and investment benchmark

Gross yield (ROI) is calculated only at the area level, as there is not a single registered lease contract in DLD for the building or the master project.
– The current average gross ROI for the area: 950 ÷ 14,108 ≈ 6.7% per annum.
– Adjusted for transaction costs (DLD, brokerage, related expenses), the effective net yield (ROI_net) is about 6.2–6.3% per annum.

If we focus on an investor targeting at least 7–8% annual yield, the “fair investment threshold” price per m² for the area would be:
– for 7%: 950 / 0.07 ≈ 13,570 AED/m²
– for 8%: 950 / 0.08 ≈ 11,875 AED/m²

This means that the current average price level in Oxford Gardens (15,656 AED/m² for 1BR) is already well outside the investment‑attractive range for the area: to reach a 7–8% annual yield based on DLD‑confirmed rents, either a price adjustment (discount) is required, or a change in demand structure and rental rates.

5. Liquidity and outlook

The total number of 1BR transactions in Oxford Gardens is 127, with particularly high activity throughout 2024 (no fewer than 12 deals per quarter, peaking at 33). In the area as a whole, both sales and rentals are counted in thousands of transactions, which clearly indicates stable demand and high segment liquidity.

In the long term, price growth dynamics in the Oxford Gardens project are outpacing area benchmarks, but current prices are also significantly higher than the area average (by 10–11%). Rental supply and yields are determined not at the building level, but by the overall situation in the area. Over a 3–5 year horizon, upside potential for new deals in Oxford Gardens is constrained by the high entry price; further outperformance in dynamics is only possible with a substantial increase in rental rates or a change in the demand profile.

6. Summary

– Genuinely strong demand, liquidity, and price‑per‑m² growth for 1BR units in Oxford Gardens.
– Current price per m² exceeds the area average by 10–11%.
– Actual yield confirmed by DLD rental data is about 6.7% per annum for the area as a whole (it is impossible to assess at building level).
– The “fair investment price” for a 7–8% annual yield is significantly below the current level.
– For a long‑term investor, the current price level in Oxford Gardens is more premium than purely investment‑driven.