ROI analysis of apartment in OXFORD BOULEVARD: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

The actual location of the OXFORD BOULEVARD building is confirmed by open DLD data: the property is situated in Al Barsha South Fourth and is part of the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. There are 253 registered sales transactions for this building in the DLD sales database, which allows for a reasonably robust statistical analysis of price dynamics and current price levels. In the rental database (DLD_rent_contracts), there have been no valid 2-bedroom apartment contracts recorded for this specific building in recent years, nor for the entire Jumeirah Village Circle master project; therefore, rental rate analysis is only possible at the Al Barsha South Fourth district level (121,513 contracts).

2. Transaction dynamics and liquidity for the building and the district

The transaction volume for the building peaked in 2021 (especially in Q1 – the peak of handover and key sales), followed by a steady but lower flow of deals (on average 6–14 transactions per quarter up to the present). This indicates both high initial liquidity and stable demand on the secondary market thereafter.

3. Price dynamics and price per m², comparison with the district

For 2-bedroom apartments in OXFORD BOULEVARD, the price per m² has shown a pronounced upward trend:
– In 2020–2021 the average price per m² was in the range of 6,500–7,000 AED.
– In 2023–2024 the volume‑weighted price per m² for recent transactions increased to 9,200–11,600 AED.
– Over the last 12 months (to date), the average sale price of 2BR units in the building has been around 11,566 AED per m².

For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth (only residential “apartment, 2 bedrooms”) over the last 12 months the average price per m² is higher — about 13,006 AED, with a clearly upward trend for the district as well (from 8,000–9,000 AED in 2021–2022 to 13,000+ AED in 2024). Thus, the building is cheaper than the district’s average benchmark by approximately 10–12%.

4. Rental analysis

There are no current rental contracts for 2BR apartments in OXFORD BOULEVARD or across Jumeirah Village Circle in the open DLD rental data. As a reference point, we can only use the average rental level in Al Barsha South Fourth for residential apartments of any type:
– Over the last 12 months, the average annual rental rate for apartments in the district, converted to a per‑m² basis, is 1,047 AED/m².
– Rental dynamics in the district show stable growth: from ~800 AED/m² in 2023 to ~1,050 AED/m² in 2024.

Important: these figures are an averaged district‑level benchmark. They can be used as a guideline for investment calculations; however, the actual rental rate for a 2BR in OXFORD BOULEVARD may differ slightly.

5. ROI calculation and investment fair value

Gross yield (ROI) when purchasing a 2BR apartment in OXFORD BOULEVARD based on the current average sale price and the district’s average rental rate:
– Building‑level ROI_brutto: cannot be calculated due to the absence of direct rental contracts; only district‑level ROI can be provided.
– District‑level ROI_brutto: 1,047 / 13,006 ≈ 8.1% per annum (excluding transaction costs and tenant acquisition costs).

Taking into account initial expenses (about 7–8% on top of the purchase price), the net yield will be lower: district‑level ROI_net is estimated at roughly 7.5–7.6% per annum.

The investment fair price range for a target yield of 7–8% per annum, based on the district rental rate (1,047 AED/m²), is:
– At 8%: 1,047 / 0.08 = 13,087 AED/m².
– At 7%: 1,047 / 0.07 = 14,957 AED/m².
The current actual transaction price in the building (11,566 AED/m²) is noticeably below this range, indicating the presence of an investment discount versus the district. At these purchase prices, the projected yield for a future investor is even higher than the target 8% per annum, assuming the apartment can realistically be rented out at the district’s average rate.

6. Investor perspective and liquidity

In terms of registered transaction volume, the building appears highly liquid, with a stable secondary market activity. The property is currently trading at a discount to the district’s average market level, which provides potential upside in case of price convergence or increased demand for 2BR units in the Jumeirah Village Circle segment. The district is characterized by rising rental rates and sustained tenant demand. The calculated yield remains above the market benchmark (around 8% gross annual return), and the current acquisition price looks quite attractive for an investor.

Limitations and notes: no direct rental data for the building has been found; ROI and the “fair price range” are based on district averages and should be treated as indicative. The final figures do not constitute a formal valuation and must be adjusted for the specific characteristics of the individual apartment and contract.