1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, MODELUX TOWER 1 is located in the Warsan Fourth area, within the International City Phase 3 master project.
The segment under analysis is two-bedroom apartments (“2 b/r” in sales). DLD records show a total of 10 transactions for such apartments in MODELUX TOWER 1, and 407 transactions of this type in Warsan Fourth.
For the rental market, there have been no valid contracts recorded for this building, and there are also no confirmed rental contracts of the relevant type for the master project. Therefore, all rental and yield estimates are provided only at the Warsan Fourth area level.
2. Liquidity and activity
Sales volume in the building is limited: 10 transactions with 2-bedroom apartments over the entire observation period. Transactions were unevenly distributed over time, with both active periods (2021, 2022) and periods with almost no deals.
Across Warsan Fourth as a whole, the dynamics are much more stable: dozens of transactions per year are recorded for 2-bedroom apartments, indicating the presence of liquid demand for this segment in the area.
No rental contracts have been recorded for the building itself or the master project, while in the area more than 46,000 valid residential lease contracts have been concluded for 2-bedroom units and other types (all residential stock).
3. Price dynamics (sales)
In MODELUX TOWER 1, the average price per m² for 2-bedroom apartments has shown steady growth:
– At the beginning of 2021 — around 5,300 AED/m²,
– By 2022 the average level had risen to 5,600 AED/m²,
– In 2023 — it approached 5,700–5,800 AED/m²,
– Over the last 12 months the average price reached 7,990 AED/m².
– Quarterly data for 2024 at the area level show further growth: an average of 10,063 AED/m² over the last 12 months in Warsan Fourth for comparable apartments.
Area-wide dynamics also showed growth and significant volatility — some quarters recorded spikes to 9,400–10,500 AED/m², while the lows were observed in 2021, when the average price dropped to 4,300–5,200 AED/m² (a local minimum amid a market correction).
4. Rental dynamics and levels
For MODELUX TOWER 1 and the International City Phase 3 master project, no valid rental contracts for two-bedroom apartments have been recorded in DLD over the last 12 months or the entire observable period.
In Warsan Fourth, the average rental rate for all types of residential units, based on valid contracts over the last 12 months, is 756 AED/m² per year. Quarterly data over recent years show a steady increase in rents — back in 2022–2023 the area was renting on average at 530–600 AED/m² per year, while current values are close to 750–800 AED/m².
The distribution of rates by quarter indicates sufficient liquidity and solid market demand for rental properties in the area.
5. Comparison of MODELUX TOWER 1 and the area, yield estimates
The current average sales level in the building (7,990 AED/m²) is below the area average (10,063 AED/m² over the last 12 months). Thus, transactions in MODELUX TOWER 1 are taking place at a noticeable discount to the average price of comparable apartments in Warsan Fourth (20–25% lower).
The rental rate is taken at the area level (756 AED/m² per year), since there is no data for the building and the master project.
ROI calculation (gross): area-level values only (for MODELUX TOWER 1 it is impossible to calculate due to the absence of rental data).
Gross ROI for the area (Warsan Fourth) = average area rental rate / average transaction price over the last 12 months.
ROI_brutto_area = 756 / 10,063 ≈ 7.5% per annum.
Taking into account initial costs (DLD fee, brokerage commission, registration and other expenses, assumed at 7–8% of the entry price):
ROI_net_area ≈ 7.5% / 1.07 ≈ 7.0% per annum net
or 7.5% / 1.08 ≈ 6.9% per annum net
Investment-fair price range (area-based calculation for a target yield of 7–8% per annum):
– Minimum price for an 8% yield: 756 / 0.08 = 9,450 AED/m²
– Upper bound (for 7%): 756 / 0.07 = 10,800 AED/m²
The current average sales level in MODELUX TOWER 1 (7,990 AED/m²) is significantly below this range, which makes the asset more attractive in terms of yield when compared with the area benchmark.
6. Conclusions and recommendations
– Liquidity in the building is noticeably lower than in the area overall — there are few transactions, which may be due to limited supply or the specific characteristics of the building itself.
– Warsan Fourth enjoys stable demand for both purchases and rentals in the two-bedroom apartment segment.
– Secondary market prices have risen by more than 50% over 3 years, and rental growth has also been strong, especially in 2023–2024.
– For new investors targeting a 7–8% annual yield, this level is fully achievable at the area level, and when buying in MODELUX TOWER 1 at current prices, the yield may be even higher (provided that the achievable rental rate is not materially lower).
– Prospects for investors are positive: the current price level in the building allows for a premium ROI compared to the area, although liquidity and the number of transactions are significantly lower than the location average.
Note: all rental and yield figures here are provided only at the Warsan Fourth area level (no data is available for the building). The final yield of a specific apartment in MODELUX TOWER 1 may differ depending on operating conditions, fit-out, and market environment. Quarterly and annual price and rental dynamics are available for visualization.
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