1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to Dubai Land Department (DLD), the building Lagoon Views at District One is located in the Al Merkadh area. The master project that includes this property is Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community. The DLD database records 27 sales of one-bedroom (1BR) apartments in this building.
Rental database: At the building and master-project level, no rental contracts were found in the DLD data. Sufficient rental data is available only for the Al Merkadh area (with tens of thousands of contracts), so the analysis is carried out at this level.
2. Sales analysis (1BR) in Lagoon Views at District One
• Over the past 12 months, 4 transactions for the sale of 1BR apartments have been registered, with an average price of 21,340 AED per m².
• Quarterly price dynamics: from 2022 to 2024, the building has shown a stable and high average price per m² in the range of 20,900–22,200 AED, with the exception of one outlier (12,610 AED in Q4 2023, most likely an outlier/special deal).
• In Al Merkadh, the average price per m² for one-bedroom apartments over the last 12 months is 20,380 AED (transaction volume — 1,769 deals), which is slightly lower than in the building under review.
Comparison: Units in Lagoon Views at District One are trading at about 5% above the area average for the comparable 1BR segment, which confirms the positioning of this development as premium relative to the broader Al Merkadh market.
3. Market dynamics in the area
In Al Merkadh, prices for 1BR apartments have increased from around 15,350 to 20,380 AED per m² since 2020 (based on the last 12 months). After a notable rise in 2021–2022, the trend in 2023–2024 remains positive, with mild stabilization and sustained demand.
Market volume is very high: over the past 12 months, 1,769 transactions have been completed for comparable 1BR units.
4. Rental market analysis (Al Merkadh area)
There is no valid market rental information at the building/project level; at the area level, the situation is as follows:
• The average annual rental rate per m² in Al Merkadh over the past 12 months was 1,546 AED (based on more than 10,000 contracts).
• Dynamics: since 2022, rental rates for 1BR and similar units in the area have almost doubled (from ~850 AED/m² to 1,500+ AED/m²), with a peak in Q3 2024 and subsequent consolidation above 1,500 AED/m².
5. ROI and investment fair price range
• The baseline gross yield (brutto ROI) for Al Merkadh at the current average price of 20,380 AED/m² and average rent of 1,546 AED/m² is around 7.6% per annum.
• For the specific building (Lagoon Views at District One), detailed rental rates are not available, so ROI is calculated at the area level. If a similar yield were applied to this development, the gross ROI would be about 7.2% (1,546 / 21,340).
• After accounting for initial costs (taxes and fees of ~7–8% of the purchase price), the effective yield (net ROI) is around 6.7–6.8% per annum for the area and 6.6–6.7% for the building.
Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual return:
• For a target yield of 7–8% in the area (with average rent of 1,546 AED/m²), the “fair purchase price” is 19,325–22,080 AED/m².
• For Lagoon Views at District One, the current 1BR price level falls exactly within this investment range (21,340 AED/m²), meaning no additional discount or premium is required.
6. Liquidity and outlook
• Lagoon Views at District One has sufficient market liquidity for a new-build segment, but lags behind the transaction volume of the wider secondary market in the area.
• Al Merkadh is one of the fastest-growing areas in terms of popularity and transaction volume within Dubai’s premium segment. Large-scale new supply supports liquidity, while persistently high rental levels combined with moderate price growth indicate stable investment appeal.
Summary: For one-bedroom apartments in Lagoon Views at District One, the current market value is fully aligned with the target investment yield range (7–8% gross). Area-wide liquidity and rental levels are confirmed by large transaction volumes; the attractiveness for rental income is high. Choosing this asset is justified for an investor targeting a capitalization rate of around 7% per annum over a 3–5 year horizon, while further price dynamics will largely depend on the overall state of the premium market and the pace of new supply coming to market.
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