ROI analysis of apartment in HZ RESIDENCES 4: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD data, HZ RESIDENCES 4 is located in the Warsan Fourth district, within the master project International City Phase 3. The project and building share the same name, and the database structure makes it possible to confidently attribute all transactions to the correct asset.

The total number of sale and purchase transactions for the building is 100. For rentals, there are 52 valid contracts recorded over the project’s history (with actual values for area and price).

2. Sales dynamics and transaction structure

Sales were largely concentrated in 2025 (81 transactions), with an additional 19 transactions in 2024. This pattern is typical for new developments or projects actively entering the market.

Average price per m² in the building by quarter (2024–2025):

– Q2 2024: 9,462 AED/m²
– Q3 2024: 9,707 AED/m²
– Q4 2024: 8,873 AED/m²
– Q1 2025: 9,300 AED/m²
– Q2 2025: 9,220 AED/m²
– Q3 2025: 8,014 AED/m²
– Q4 2025: 7,359 AED/m²

The peak of the average price per m² was at the turn of 2024–2025, followed by a gradual decline. This may be linked to mass handover of keys or clearance of the last remaining units.

By bedroom count: 96 out of 100 transactions relate to 1-bedroom (1 B/R) apartments, 3 transactions involve 3-bedroom units, and 1 transaction involves a 4-bedroom unit. The highest average price per m² is for the 1-bedroom format (9,255 AED/m²), while larger apartments are cheaper on a per‑m² basis (5,102–5,425 AED/m²). There are no studio (0BR) transactions in the database, which is important to keep in mind if focusing solely on this layout type.

Across the entire Warsan Fourth district, price dynamics per m² are significantly more volatile: quarterly values fluctuate between 5,400 and 11,500 AED/m² over 2022–2026, reflecting the heterogeneity of assets and the quality of new projects. Over the last 12 months, the district average is 10,782 AED/m², which is 19% higher than in the building itself (building — 9,028 AED/m²).

3. Rental and yield analysis

The rental dataset includes 52 contracts, all of them for “1bed room+Hall” layouts (equivalent to 1 B/R). The building shows a fairly stable trend in average rental rate per m² over the last four quarters:

– Q2 2025: 829 AED/m²/year
– Q3 2025: 838 AED/m²/year
– Q4 2025: 837 AED/m²/year
– Q1 2026: 900 AED/m²/year

The average rent per m² over the last 12 months is 835 AED/m²/year.

For comparison, the figure for Warsan Fourth is lower: 750 AED/m²/year over the last 12 months. The dynamics indicate a steady increase in rental rates in the district: from 500–600 AED/m²/year in 2021–2022 to 660–790 AED/m²/year in 2024–2025.

4. Investment yield (ROI) and guidance on “fair price”

– Average acquisition price per m² in HZ RESIDENCES 4 over the last 12 months: 9,028 AED.
– Average rent in the building — 835 AED/m²/year. In the district — 750 AED/m²/year.

Brutto ROI (based on DLD):

– For the building: 835 / 9028 ≈ 9.2% per annum
– For the district: 750 / 10782 ≈ 7.0% per annum

Taking into account initial transaction costs of 7–8% (DLD, broker, registration), the net ROI for the building is approximately: 9.2% / 1.07 ≈ 8.6% per annum (net). For the district — around 6.5%.

The “investment fair price” range for the building at a target yield of 7–8% per annum is:

– 835 / 0.08 = 10,438 AED/m² (yield 8%)
– 835 / 0.07 = 11,929 AED/m² (yield 7%)

The current actual price per m² in the building (9,028 AED) is noticeably below even the lower bound of this interval — this indicates a yield premium for the investor (returns above the typical market norm, which is logical for new budget projects on the outskirts).

5. Liquidity and market structure

The volume of transactions and rental contracts in the building is above average for the local market: strong demand at the project’s launch and stable tenant activity in the dominant format (1-bedroom apartments). Warsan Fourth as a whole also demonstrates high liquidity in both sales and rentals, especially against the backdrop of new project deliveries.

6. Overall conclusions and outlook

HZ RESIDENCES 4 delivers rental yields that significantly exceed the averages for the district and the wider Dubai market. The current entry price per m² allows investors to target a high brutto/net ROI, while the rental plans and dynamics confirm resilient demand in the budget segment. District prices are higher on average — in the long term, the price gap may narrow as the complex matures and the market becomes more saturated.

Upside potential may be constrained by the low starting base and intense competition in the location, yet the yield level described above makes the asset attractive for short- and medium‑term investors.