1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: the Genesis building is unambiguously located, according to DLD data, in Al Barshaa South Third, master project Arjan. The filtering was done for a single building — Genesis, apartment type — 1 bedroom (1BR). For this property, more than 300 sale transactions and 679 lease contracts have been recorded (without breakdown by number of bedrooms).
2. Volume and structure of transactions
For the sale of 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in Genesis, regular transactions have been recorded since 2020, with a volume of 2 to 15 deals per quarter. At the district level over the same period, the transaction frequency is several times higher (dozens to hundreds per quarter), which indicates high liquidity and strong demand for the 1-bedroom segment both in this building and in Al Barshaa South Third as a whole.
3. Price dynamics per square metre (Genesis and the district)
For Genesis over the past 4 years, the average price per m² (1BR) has ranged from around AED 7,400 to AED 10,300/m², with growth and corrections following the market:
– In 2020: AED 6,800–10,300/m².
– In 2021: AED 6,950–8,400/m².
– From 2022, stabilisation: AED 7,600–10,500/m².
– 2023: AED 7,400–9,200/m², early 2024 — around AED 9,600–10,000/m².
The average price per m² for the building over the last 12 months (recent transactions) is about AED 11,700/m².
For Al Barshaa South Third (1BR apartments only), the level is higher, with quarterly average prices over the past 4 years ranging from AED 9,400 to 13,950/m², and the current average (last 12 months) at AED 14,260/m². The district level is noticeably higher than in Genesis, reflecting both the specifics of this particular building and the presence of newer or more premium projects in the area.
4. Rental rate dynamics
For Genesis, no 1BR lease contracts with valid metrics have been recorded in the DLD database over the past 12 months — there are no contracts explicitly marked as 1 bedroom, which may be related to EJARI registration specifics or incomplete data export for this building.
For Al Barshaa South Third (1BR), it was also not possible to derive an aggregated rental rate (insufficient unit-type detail within contracts). However, the overall average annual rent per m² in the district over the last 12 months — without breakdown by apartment type — is about AED 950/m². This figure covers the entire apartment segment, not only 1BR, and is therefore indicative, but it shows the order of magnitude of market yields at the district level.
5. “Building vs district” comparison and investment metrics
In the 1BR segment, Genesis is currently trading at a significant discount to the district average (AED 11,700/m² for the building versus AED 14,260/m² for the district over the last 12 months, a difference of about 18% in favour of the buyer). The reasons lie in the specifics of the building itself, its age, characteristics, or market pressure at the current stage of the cycle.
The average annual rent per m² in the district (AED 950/m²/year for all apartments) provides a benchmark for a rough estimate of gross yield (ROI_brutto) at around 6.7% per annum (950 / 14,260), which is typical for new districts of this class after a sharp price increase.
For Genesis (based on the district rental benchmark, since no building-specific contracts were identified):
– ROI_brutto = 950 / 11,700 ≈ 8.1% per annum.
However, due to the lack of confirmed rental rates for this specific building, these figures represent a maximum possible estimate rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Taking into account initial acquisition costs (DLD and brokerage fees, registration, etc., totalling +7–8% to the purchase price), the actual yield (ROI_net) is about 7% lower and will be approximately 7.5–7.6% per annum for Genesis (8.1% / 1.07–1.08).
The “fair price” range for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield, based on district data, is 950 / 0.08 to 950 / 0.07, i.e. AED 11,875–13,600/m². Genesis, with current sales at AED 11,700/m², falls within this range, which makes the building attractive for income-focused investment compared with the broader market situation in Arjan/Al Barshaa South Third.
6. Liquidity and outlook
In terms of transaction count, Genesis consistently ranks among the liquid buildings in the district: deals take place almost every quarter, and the building does not sit idle on the market. Sales activity is also supported at the overall district level. The decline or absence of lease contracts specifically for this building requires separate verification in practice or via non-public data, but at the district level, demand and liquidity in the apartment rental segment remain stable.
The 3–5 year outlook depends on the overall trend in Arjan and developers’ strategies: the current combination of a purchase discount and district-level yields may attract investors in the near term, but further strong price growth is not guaranteed. Long-term maintenance of a 7–8% yield is possible with stable rental rates and a limited surge of new supply in this segment.
Conclusion: Genesis is a liquid, straightforward investment option priced significantly below the district average. In the absence of confirmed rental data for the building itself, it is advisable to rely on district benchmarks, which makes the purchase relatively attractive for a rental business in current market conditions.
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