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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, GEMINI SPLENDOR is located in Al Merkadh, within the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. The analysed unit is a one-bedroom (1BR) apartment in the GEMINI SPLENDOR building, which is confirmed by 38 transactions in the DLD database.
The DLD database provides sufficient data both for sales (119 transactions in the building, of which 38 are specifically 1BR) and for rentals: 146 rental contracts in the building (31 over the last 12 months). Al Merkadh has been used as the benchmark area.
2. Sales dynamics and structure
Transaction frequency:
For 1BR units in GEMINI SPLENDOR, the highest number of transactions falls on 2024 and 2025, which may be related to project handover and increased sales activity after completion. Over the last 12 months, 17 transactions have been registered in the building; for a single tower, this level of liquidity can be considered good.
Average price per m² dynamics for the building:
The average sale price of 1BR units in GEMINI SPLENDOR based on transactions over the last 12 months is approximately AED 14,936/m². Historically, prices fluctuated: in 2021 they were in the range of AED 6,900–7,800/m², then from 2023 they started to grow to AED 13,300–17,000/m² in 2023–2024. Over the past year the range has remained within AED 14,700–17,000/m², reflecting a stabilised pricing level after the building launch.
Average price per m² dynamics for the area:
Across Al Merkadh as a whole, the 1BR level is significantly higher: over 12 months — around AED 20,669/m², and in 2024 quarterly values are in the range of AED 18,400–21,300+ /m². The 25–35% gap between prices in GEMINI SPLENDOR and the wider area is substantial.
3. Rental analysis
The average annual rent per m² in GEMINI SPLENDOR over the last 12 months across all apartments is AED 1,097/m² (31 contracts). The dynamics show a noticeable increase: a year ago the average rate was at AED 600–900/m², while from late 2023 and especially in 2024 rates have consistently moved into the AED 950–1,100+ /m² range.
For comparison, in Al Merkadh the average rental rate over 12 months is AED 1,550/m², and quarterly values for 2024 reach AED 1,350–1,550/m².
This indicates that rental rates in GEMINI SPLENDOR are still significantly below the area benchmark.
4. Comparison of prices, rents and yield calculation
Current purchase price level for the building over 12 months: AED 14,936/m²; for the area — around AED 20,669/m².
Current rental level for the building — AED 1,097/m²/year; for the area — AED 1,550/m²/year.
The share of rented apartments in the building is average for the Dubai market — compared to the total number of sales and contracts, we can speak of relatively strong tenant demand and sufficient liquidity.
ROI (Brutto) calculation for the building:
Direct calculation: 1,097 / 14,936 ≈ 7.35% per annum (brutto, excluding expenses).
ROI for the area (Al Merkadh): 1,550 / 20,669 ≈ 7.50% per annum.
For an accurate investment assessment, entry costs should be taken into account (DLD fee + agent + other expenses — approximately 7–8%). Adjustment: 7.35% / 1.07 ≈ 6.87%, or with 8% — ≈ 6.80% per annum (net).
Fair price range for a 7–8% net target:
If we take the market rent in GEMINI SPLENDOR (AED 1,097/m²) as a reference, then for an 8% yield the apartment should be priced at no more than AED 13,710/m², and for a 7% yield — up to AED 15,671/m². The current level of actual transactions (AED 14,936/m²) is close to the 7–8% net yield range. The discount to the area price is obvious (the area is significantly more expensive both in terms of price and rent).
5. Key conclusions and outlook
In the 1BR segment, GEMINI SPLENDOR is noticeably more affordable than the wider Al Merkadh market — both in terms of purchase price and rental rates. This reflects either the early stage of the project’s market cycle or certain specifics in how tenants and buyers perceive the building itself. Sales and rental liquidity over the year is confirmed by DLD figures.
The dynamics over the last 3–4 years for both the building and the area show a sharp market increase in apartment prices in Al Merkadh (especially since 2021), which has created a significant gap between most new projects and more affordable under-construction or newly handed-over buildings.
At the current market levels for sales and rents in GEMINI SPLENDOR, the investment yield stands at 7–7.4% brutto, or just under 7% net when all entry costs are included. This is an optimal level for a passive investor: the area benchmark is slightly higher in terms of rent, but significantly more expensive in terms of purchase price.
For a seller: current prices in the building are objectively below the average market level in the area. For an investor: entering at current parameters provides a yield comparable to top projects in Al Merkadh. Further rental growth is possible as the complex gains recognition, but for 2024 the gap versus the area remains clear.
6. Demand and liquidity outlook:
There is stable liquidity in both sales and rentals, the volume of new contracts is steady, and demand for 1BR units remains high at the area level. The property is suitable both for own residence and for conservative investment with predictable income.
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