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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location:
According to DLD, ELLINGTON HOUSE is located in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid and is part of the Dubai Hills Estate master project. The analysis is based on transactions for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in this building, while the benchmark is the wider 1BR data set for Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid.
Data structure and volume:
The DLD database contains 134 transactions for 1-bedroom apartments in ELLINGTON HOUSE, with sales recorded from 2022 and continuing to date. There are no rental contracts in DLD either for the building itself or for the master project, so we rely on a broad sample of residential apartments in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (over 29,000 valid contracts in recent years).
2. Deal volume dynamics
Sales frequency by year:
– 2022: 45 transactions
– 2023: 19 transactions
– 2024: 18 transactions (as of the analysis date)
– 2025: 52 transactions (most likely reflecting forward/off-plan sales)
A significant share of transactions are at early purchase stages (presumably off-plan), which is typical for new projects by Ellington.
The average size of transacted 1BR units is 74–83 m², with most price-per-m² deals ranging between 18,000 and 26,000 AED/m², and some outliers significantly higher (up to 29,000 AED/m² and above).
3. Average price per m² trends
For the building (ELLINGTON HOUSE, 1BR):
– In Q3–Q4 2022 the average price per m² was 18,800–19,900 AED.
– In 2023 there was growth to peak levels of 21,700–23,900 AED/m².
– In 2024 prices moved further up, with quarterly averages ranging from 20,200 to 23,500 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months the average transaction price was 22,400 AED/m² (49 transactions).
For Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (1BR):
– Price dynamics since 2022: from 15,200–18,100 AED/m² in 2022 to 22,500–24,500 AED/m² in 2024, with peak values in Q3 2024 (24,500 AED/m²).
– Over the last 12 months the average price per m² for 1BR units in the area is 24,100 AED (2,302 transactions).
Thus, the average price in ELLINGTON HOUSE is slightly below the wider area (22,400 AED/m² vs. 24,100 AED/m² over the last 12 months).
4. Rental statistics
DLD does not record any valid rental contracts for either the building itself or the master project, which is typical for new buildings that are just entering the market and do not yet have a representative rental history.
At the level of Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (all residential apartments):
– Over the last 12 months, 6,371 rental contracts have been concluded in the area.
– The average annual rental rate per m² for this period is 1,448 AED.
– Rental dynamics over the last 4 years show strong growth: from 700–1,000 AED/m² (2021–2022) to 1,200–1,350 AED/m² in 2024; in Q3 2024 the rate reaches 1,340 AED/m², and in Q4 — 1,345 AED/m².
– Already in 2025 the average annual rent is in the 1,400–1,500 AED/m² range.
Conclusion: the current level of market rental rates in the area (according to DLD) is close to 1,448 AED/m² per apartment on average, including both 1BR and other unit types.
5. Comparison of capital and rental rates, returns (ROI)
Key metrics for the last 12 months:
– Average purchase price per m² in the building: 22,400 AED (ELLINGTON HOUSE transactions).
– Average purchase price per m² in the area: 24,100 AED (Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid).
– Average annual rent per m²: 1,448 AED (area only; no data for the building itself).
Approximate yield calculation for the area (other levels are impossible due to the absence of rental contracts):
– Gross ROI for the area = 1,448 / 24,100 ≈ 6.0%.
– After factoring in entry costs (taxes and fees of around 7%), the adjusted net ROI is ≈ 5.6%.
Fair entry price range for an investor (for a target yield of 7–8% per annum):
– For the area: “fair price” for an 8% yield = 1,448 / 0.08 = 18,100 AED/m²; for a 7% yield = 1,448 / 0.07 = 20,700 AED/m².
– The actual average market price (24,100 AED/m²) is roughly 15–33% above the “investment range” required to achieve 7–8% per annum.
6. Conclusions on liquidity and asset outlook
– Liquidity of ELLINGTON HOUSE can be assessed as high: 134 transactions have been recorded in the building for 1BR units alone, there is steady demand for apartments in this segment of the area, and more than 2,300 1BR transactions per year across the district.
– Market price growth for 1BR units in the area has exceeded 50% over the last 2.5 years.
– The building is currently in a stable launch phase — price dynamics (and future rental rates) will depend on how quickly units are brought to the market after full handover.
– Historically, the building has been slightly cheaper than the “area” level for 1BR units, which creates a potential entry point for an investor; however, without actual rental contracts in the building it is impossible to confidently forecast DLD-based yields for the coming year.
– In the area as a whole, gross purchase yield is around 6%, which, after all costs, results in a net yield of about 5.6%, below the “fair” target for most investors (7–8%). To reach that level, the purchase price needs to be 15–30% below the current area average.
– When calculating a fair listing/sale price, it makes sense to anchor to the prevailing market price in the area and current rental rates.
7. Recommended action
To purchase with a target return of 7–8% per annum based on current market conditions, a substantial discount to prevailing average prices per m² is required. For ELLINGTON HOUSE owners entering the rental market, it is reasonable to use the established area level of 1,400–1,450 AED/m² per year for 1BR units as the upper benchmark, while closely monitoring the emergence of actual rental transactions in the building itself to fine-tune the strategy.
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