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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location:
According to Dubai Land Department (DLD), the Elitz 3 By Danube project is registered in the Al Barsha South Fourth area and belongs to the Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) master project. All analytical comparisons are based on this area.
By number of records:
– Total number of sale and purchase transactions for the project — around 700.
– The DLD database has no registered rental contracts for Elitz 3 By Danube yet (which is typical for new projects under construction), but there are more than 120,000 rental contracts recorded for the JVC master project.
2. Dynamics and liquidity: sales
Transaction frequency:
For 1-bedroom apartments, from Q4 2023 to mid‑2024 there has been active contract signing: around 70–145 deals per quarter. This is very high liquidity for an off‑plan project and indicates strong demand at the current stage of the project’s rollout.
Average price per square metre dynamics (AED):
– In Q4 2023 the average price for 1BR in Elitz 3 was 16,600 AED/m².
– In H1 2024 the average level remained in the 16,400–16,950 AED/m² range.
– In H2 2024 and early 2025 the average price started to grow gradually, reaching an estimated 17,300–17,600 AED/m² in the last quarter.
For comparison, across the Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) master project:
– The average price per m² for 1BR at the start of 2020 was about 7,700–8,800 AED/m².
– In 2022–2023 the growth accelerated; over the last 12 months the average level was around 14,150 AED/m².
– In recent quarters the price in JVC has been gradually increasing, reaching 14,800 AED/m² by the end of the analysed period.
Over the last 12 months Elitz 3 has been selling at an average of 17,480 AED/m² (1BR), which is 23% above the average 1BR price in JVC (14,150 AED/m²). The project is positioned as a premium product for this area.
3. Rental rates and dynamics
There are still no registered rental contracts for Elitz 3 By Danube in DLD: most likely, no units have yet been handed over and rented out. Therefore, analysis is only possible at the JVC level.
According to DLD data for JVC over the last 12 months:
– The average annual rental rate for apartments is about 1,015 AED/m² (residential leases, all apartment types).
– Rate dynamics: steady growth — from 745–810 AED/m² in 2023 to 900–1,000+ AED/m² in the last quarters of 2024.
4. ROI and investment fair price range
ROI (yield) can only be calculated at the JVC level, since there is no actual rental data for Elitz 3.
– Average market rental rate in JVC: ~1,016 AED/m²/year.
– Average purchase price in Elitz 3 (1BR) over the last 12 months: ~17,480 AED/m².
– Average purchase price in JVC (1BR) over the last 12 months: ~14,150 AED/m².
Gross ROI for the area (calculation: rent/purchase): 1,016 / 14,150 ≈ 7.2% per annum (before taxes and transaction costs).
Gross ROI for Elitz 3: cannot be reliably calculated at this stage — there are no DLD‑recorded rental rates specifically for this building.
Adjustment for transaction costs (7–8% entry cost): the actual annual yield (net ROI) for the area will decrease to roughly 6.7–6.8% per annum.
Fair purchase price range if targeting a 7–8% annual yield (based on the JVC benchmark):
– To achieve 8% ROI: rental rate / 0.08 = 1,016 / 0.08 ≈ 12,700 AED/m².
– To achieve 7% ROI: rental rate / 0.07 = 1,016 / 0.07 ≈ 14,500 AED/m².
– The current average transaction price in JVC is right at the upper boundary of this range (~14,150 AED/m²).
– The average price in Elitz 3 is 20–23% higher: to consider a purchase with a target yield of 7–8% at today’s agreed rental rates in JVC, you would need either a noticeable premium in rental rates in this building or a discount on the purchase price.
5. Investor takeaways
– Elitz 3 By Danube demonstrates high liquidity at the construction stage and premium pricing for its area.
– JVC has a resilient rental market — steady growth, large transaction volumes, and stable demand from both tenants and investors.
– Achieving ROI above 7% at the actual average Elitz 3 price will be challenging (unless rental rates in the building turn out to be significantly higher than the area average).
– For a long‑term investor, a premium off‑plan project offers an interesting capital appreciation story, but current yield will be lower than for an average purchase in JVC.
– Price growth for 1BR units in JVC continues, but Elitz 3 is already trading at a substantial premium to the area.
Without rental data for the building itself, it is impossible to provide an accurate assessment of yield, fair price, and a personalised recommendation: use JVC as a benchmark and track local market dynamics.
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