1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: the Creek Waters project is located in the Al Khairan First area, within the Dubai Creek Harbour master development. This information is confirmed by the DLD database (all transactions for 1-bedroom apartments are recorded under this project name and area).
2. Sales: volume, dynamics, structure
In total, 203 transactions have been recorded for 1-bedroom apartments in Creek Waters (Flat, Residential, sale). This is a sufficiently large volume for analysis, with the majority of deals falling in 2023 (the most active quarters were Q2 and Q3; later quarters show lower volumes, which is typical for off-plan projects).
Dynamics of the average price per square metre (by building):
— Q2 2023: 24,255 AED/m²,
— Q3 2023: 24,874 AED/m²,
— Q4 2023: 24,787 AED/m²,
— Q1 2024: 24,867 AED/m²,
— Q2 2024: 21,809 AED/m²,
— subsequent periods (2024–2025): values fluctuate in the range of 23,600–25,100 AED/m².
Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price for 1-bedroom apartments in the building amounted to 24,256 AED/m².
For comparison, in Al Khairan First the price of similar apartments has recently been slightly higher — 25,234 AED/m² over the last 12 months, and it has also been growing in recent years due to new development (in 2022–2023 the area added around 20%).
3. Rental market: area-level analysis
For Creek Waters itself, or even for the Dubai Creek Harbour master project, DLD_rent_contracts does not yet show any active rental contracts for 1-bedroom apartments. This is expected for new off-plan projects — there are still no completed and occupied units.
Therefore, to estimate rents and ROI we have to rely on the wider Al Khairan First market. In the area, over the last 12 months the average rental rate for all residential apartments has been 1,440 AED/m² per year (across all bedroom types, as there is still no segmented data specifically for 1-bedroom units).
Rental dynamics in the area:
— 2020: 630–650 AED/m²,
— 2022: 870–930 AED/m²,
— 2023: 1,020–1,220 AED/m² by quarter,
— 2024: growth to 1,440 AED/m².
This confirms a rapid increase in rental rates against the backdrop of rising demand and the gradual absorption of new residential stock.
4. Comparative yield and investment conclusions
Current ROI for an investor based on the area market:
— Gross yield in the area (calculated using average rental and sales rates): 1,440 / 25,234 ≈ 5.7% per annum.
— Net yield, taking into account all entry costs (DLD fee, agency commission, other expenses): around 5.3–5.4% per annum (the effective entry price is ~7% higher).
A fair purchase price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum (at current area rental levels) should be: 1,440 / 0.08 = 18,000 AED/m² (for an 8% yield), 1,440 / 0.07 = 20,600 AED/m² (for 7%). This is noticeably below both the current market price in Creek Waters (24,256 AED/m²) and the overall level in the area (25,234 AED/m²). This indicates that the premium for new development and market expectations are keeping prices significantly above the levels attractive for a classic buy-to-let investor targeting 7–8% per annum.
5. Liquidity, outlook, demand structure
Creek Waters shows a high level of interest at the launch stage — transaction volume is substantial and sales velocity was very strong throughout 2023. As the project is handed over and the first rental contracts appear, more relevant data on current rental levels in this specific building should become available.
Al Khairan First and the Dubai Creek Harbour master project are demonstrating steady growth both in purchase prices and in average rental rates. New stock is being successfully absorbed by the market at prices comparable to, or even higher than, the city average.
Over a 3–5 year horizon, the area is likely to retain its investment appeal for a long-term strategy due to:
— active development and delivery of new projects,
— a strong location by Creek Harbour,
— dynamic growth in rental rates.
However, buy-to-let yields for new entrants at current prices may be lower than for investors who entered the area at an earlier stage; the premium for new-build properties remains significant.
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