ROI analysis of apartment in Binghatti Mirage: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD data, the Binghatti Mirage building is located in the Al Barsha South Fourth area, within the Jumeirah Village Circle master project.

The DLD database on the Dubai real estate market contains extensive information: over 920,000 sale and purchase transactions and around 4.8 million rental contracts. For Binghatti Mirage, over the past 5 years, 284 sale transactions have been registered (for all apartment types), and for rentals – 173 contracts in just the last 2 years (with a stricter filter, no studio rentals were found, but there are contracts for the building as a whole).

2. Historical dynamics and liquidity

Sale and purchase transactions in Binghatti Mirage started to be recorded in mid‑2021, with the bulk of activity from Q3 2021 onwards. The building has shown consistently high transaction volumes as construction was completed and the project was handed over: at the peak, more than 100 deals per quarter, and recently 5–15 deals per quarter, which indicates sustained liquidity and available supply.

Across the Jumeirah Village Circle master project within Al Barsha South Fourth, a very high volume of transactions is being recorded (from 1,200 to 6,000 per quarter), reflecting an exceptionally high level of liquidity in the location. This is one of the most active mass‑development areas in Dubai.

The dynamics of the average price per square metre show significant growth: in Binghatti Mirage, the average price per m² over the last three years has increased from around 8,000 AED/m² (2021–2022) to 9,300–11,000 AED/m² (2023–2024), with individual peaks above 12,000 AED/m². Over the last 12 months, the average price in the building has been recorded at 10,506 AED/m².

Across JVC/Al Barsha South Fourth as a whole, the trend is more pronounced: at different periods, prices rose from about 10,000–11,000 AED/m² in 2021–2022 to more than 15,000 AED/m² in 2024. Over the last 12 months, the average price in the area reached 15,651 AED/m², which is noticeably above the Binghatti Mirage benchmark.

For rentals: the dynamics of the average annual rental rate per m² in Binghatti Mirage start from 670–800 AED/m² in 2022 and grow steadily, reaching around 900–1,000 AED/m² by mid‑2024. Over the last 12 months, the average figure for the building amounted to 1,003 AED/m²/year.

Across the JVC area as a whole, the average rental rate (12 months) is slightly higher at 1,050 AED/m²/year, which implies a minor rental premium for neighbouring new developments or more liquid complexes in the district.

3. Comparison of the building’s indicators with the area

– Binghatti Mirage is currently trading, on average, significantly below the area benchmark: 10,506 AED/m² versus 15,651 AED/m² for JVC/Al Barsha South Fourth (a lag of about 33%).
– The rental rate is below the area average: 1,003 AED/m² for the building versus 1,050 AED/m² for the area (a lag of ~4.5%).

4. ROI (return on investment)

– Annual gross ROI for Binghatti Mirage (based on actual DLD deals over the last 12 months): 1,003 / 10,506 = 9.5% per annum (gross, excluding entry costs and depreciation).
– For JVC/Al Barsha South Fourth: 1,050 / 15,651 = 6.7% per annum (gross).

Taking into account standard transaction costs (4% DLD, 2% broker, 1–2% other), the effective net yield is adjusted down by 7–8%. Approximately:
– ROI_net for the building: 8.8–8.9% (actual range: 1,003 / (10,506 × 1.07–1.08) = 8.8–8.9%)
– ROI_net for the area: 6.2–6.3% (1,050 / (15,651 × 1.07–1.08))

For an investor targeting a fair entry price with a goal of 7–8% per annum, the range of investment‑justified prices is:
– For the building: 1,003 / 0.08 = 12,540 AED/m² (for 8% per annum), 1,003 / 0.07 = 14,329 AED/m² (for 7% per annum)
– For the area: 1,050 / 0.08 = 13,125 AED/m², 1,050 / 0.07 = 15,000 AED/m²

Thus, the current market price per square metre in Binghatti Mirage is LOWER than the fair value ranges for a target yield of 7–8%. This enhances the investment appeal of the asset against the backdrop of substantial rental demand and the average market level.

5. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook

– Binghatti Mirage demonstrates high market liquidity (regular transactions, more than 170 rental contracts in just 2 years), growing rental yields, and is being sold at a significant discount to average JVC prices.
– The excess ROI over the area level (9.5% versus 6.7%) indicates high investment efficiency with moderate market risk.
– The potential for further price growth due to the gap with the wider area remains, although growth rates have slowed in recent quarters as the JVC new‑build market matures.
– For an investor, Binghatti Mirage may be attractive as an asset with a relatively low entry threshold, stable rental demand and yields above the area average.