ROI analysis of apartment in Azizi Venice 8: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the building AZIZI VENICE 8 is located in the Madinat Al Mataar area, within the Dubai World Central master project. This is confirmed by a direct data extract linked to project_name_en = ‘AZIZI VENICE 8’: area — Madinat Al Mataar, master project — Dubai World Central.

For this specific building and the filter for 2-bedroom apartments (2 b/r), no transactions were found in the DLD_transactions database. Similarly, for residential rental apartments (2 bed rooms) in DLD_rent_contracts, there is no data either for the building or for the master project. Therefore, the subsequent analysis is carried out at the Madinat Al Mataar area level (taking the master project into account), which is standard for new properties when there are still no individual sales and rental contracts.

2. Liquidity of the property and the area

Madinat Al Mataar shows a very high volume of transactions for 2-bedroom apartments over the past 5 years: the database contains more than 3,700 registrations for this type of property at the area level alone. Active sales started in 2020 and continue to this day, with a steady inflow of new contracts.

Rental activity in the area is also very high: more than 30,000 residential apartment lease contracts with current rental rates have been recorded, indicating an established and growing demand for long-term rentals in Madinat Al Mataar and Dubai World Central. This provides a solid basis for determining average market levels of yields and prices.

3. Price dynamics for sales and rentals of 2-bedroom apartments (2020–2024)

Dynamics of the average sale price per square meter:
From 2020 to 2021, average prices for 2-bedroom apartments in the area ranged from 5,000 to 8,000 AED/m², periodically decreasing or increasing depending on construction stages and the specifics of off-plan transactions.
In 2022, the trend was moderately upward — quarterly averages varied between 5,600 and 8,800 AED/m².
From early 2023, a sharp increase began: in Q1 2023 the average price reached 8,780 AED/m², and in Q2 — 8,707 AED/m².
However, in the second half of 2023 prices surged: 12,650 AED/m² in Q3 and 14,867 AED/m² in Q4.
Throughout 2024, the average sale price per m² at the area level has continued to grow: 14,294 AED/m² in Q1, 14,523 AED/m² in Q2, 14,776 AED/m² in Q3, and 16,115 AED/m² in Q4 (based on the latest registered transactions).
Over the last 12 months, the average sale price stands at 19,935 AED/m² — this level is relevant for new projects at the handover stage and late off-plan.

Dynamics of the average rental rate per m² (for residential apartments in the area):
Since 2020, rental rates have grown significantly more slowly than sale prices. Average figures for the area:
– 2020: 420–636 AED/m²/year;
– 2021: 420–527 AED/m²/year;
– 2022: 440–581 AED/m²/year;
– 2023: from 586 to 725 AED/m²/year;
– 2024: 667–810 AED/m²/year by quarter, with an average level over the last 12 months for the area of 839 AED/m²/year.

The spread of rental rates in actual contracts is very wide due to the mix of unit sizes and the specifics of individual segments: in the latest contracts, the range is roughly from 450 to 1,100 AED/m²/year, with the median around 800–850 AED/m²/year.

4. Fair price levels and comparative position of 2-bedroom apartments

Comparison of sale and rental prices at the area level:
– Average transaction price per m² (last 12 months, 2-bedroom) in the area: 19,935 AED/m².
– Average annual rental rate per m² in the area (all apartments): 839 AED/m²/year.

As can be seen, the dynamics of the last two years show a very sharp increase in prices per m² (in 2023–2024 there was almost a twofold rise), while rental growth has been much more moderate. As a result, the market yield for new buyers has dropped significantly.

5. Yield (ROI) calculation and fair price range for an investor

The current benchmark for gross annual yield (ROI) in the area is:
– ROI_brutto = average rent per m² (12 months) / average price per m² (12 months) = 839 / 19,935 ≈ 4.2% per annum.

This figure is significantly below the market benchmark of 7–8% — a key feature of the current cycle in new projects in Dubai World Central and Madinat Al Mataar.

Taking into account the main fiscal and transactional costs (registration, agency fee, DLD fee) at around 7–8% of the entry price, the net yield (ROI_net) for an investor will be even lower: approximately 3.9–4.0% per annum.

To reach a target yield of 7–8% per annum, the realistic “fair price per m²” for an investor (based on the average rent in the area) would be:
– at a 7% target yield: 839 / 0.07 = 11,986 AED/m²,
– at an 8% target yield: 839 / 0.08 = 10,488 AED/m².

This means that the current market price significantly exceeds the fair level for a classic buy-to-let investor. To achieve a 7–8% yield, a substantial discount to market transactions is required — on the order of 35–45% relative to the current average price.

6. Conclusions and outlook

– Liquidity in the area is very high, demand for new properties remains strong, and the rental market is stable, creating an attractive environment for end-user buyers and investors focused on capital appreciation.
– Over the past 2 years, price growth per m² has significantly outpaced rental growth, so the current entry yield for new investors has dropped sharply. At present, the area (and new buildings, including Azizi Venice 8) offers a yield of around 4% gross — below the classic investment benchmark of 7–8%.
– If the buyer’s key motivation is not rental income but long-term capital growth, the property may be attractive as a strategic bet on the development of a new submarket and DWC infrastructure.
– For buyers targeting rental and passive income, the area currently requires either a substantial discount to recent transactions (up to 40% below market price) or waiting for further growth in rents/yields.

Given the absence of actual sales and rental contracts for the Azizi Venice 8 building, this analysis is based on average indicators for the Madinat Al Mataar area. Current DLD data do not allow for individual conclusions specifically for this building and for 2-bedroom apartments in Azizi Venice 8.